Stochastic Model and Worldwide Conflict Resolution: Using "Big Data" concept to Predict the World’s Next Atrocity - Case of Syria and Ukrainia PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Amin Elsaleh   
Saturday, 08 March 2014 14:37

Vous pouvez trouver l’ensemble des contributions d'Amin Elsaleh sur le site academia à l’adresse:

https://independent.academia.edu/AminElsaleh

CRITICAL TRIGGER-THE CONFRONTATION?-2017-11-05

"Before Hariri’s resignation, several senior officials from Barack Obama’s administration had said a series of coordinated messages in Washington and Riyadh was building a case for military confrontation with Iran. Saturday’s announcement is likely to add to those concerns and increase fears of a clash between Hezbollah and Israel, which fought a devastating war in 2006".

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/04/lebanon-prime-minister-resigns-life-in-danger-saad-hariri

 

LAST TRIGGER-Double game?-2016-09-18

 

U.S. admits carrying out airstrike that Russia says killed 62 Syrian soldiers

The U.S. Central Command acknowledged the strike, in eastern Syria’s Deir al-Zour province, saying it was “halted immediately” when U.S. forces were informed by Russia “that it was possible the personnel and vehicles targeted were part of the Syrian military.” Central Command said the intended target had been Islamic State forces in the area.

A U.S. Defense official said the strike “appears to be an intelligence failure.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/russia-and-syria-blame-us-led-coalition-for-deadly-strike-on-syrian-troops/2016/09/17/8dabf5d6-7d03-11e6-8064-c1ddc8a724bb_story.html

 

IRREVERSIBLE ISSUE - NEW TRIGGER

Turkey’s Erdogan pivots to Putin as tensions rise with the West

“Erdogan, in turn, said he would resume talks on a natural gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey and grant special status to a planned nuclear power plant that will be built by Russia.

In a climate of heightened anti-Western sentiment, Erdogan’s move to warm relations with Russia may cement Turkey’s alienation from its traditional allies, analysts say.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/turkeys-erdogan-pivots-to-putin-as-tensions-rise-with-the-west/2016/08/08/43c19884-5d93-11e6-84c1-6d27287896b5_story.html

2016-08-10

Clinton: Destroy Syria for Israel

2016-06-29

The document was one of many unclassified by the US Department of State under case number F-2014-20439, Doc No. C05794498, following the uproar over Clinton’s private email server kept at her house while she served as Secretary of State from 2009 to 2013.

Although the Wikileaks transcript dates the email as December 31, 2000, this is an error on their part, as the contents of the email (in particular the reference to May 2012 talks between Iran and the west over its nuclear program in Istanbul) show that the email was in fact sent on December 31, 2012.

The email makes it clear that it has been US policy from the very beginning to violently overthrow the Syrian government—and specifically to do this because it is in Israel’s interests.

http://newobserveronline.com/clinton-destroy-syria-israel/

New Trigger Russian Air Power Playing Major Role in Raqqa Battles-7 June 2016

 

Lavrov warned that Russia will not approve any attempts on stalling air operations in Syria.

Moscow is “ready to coordinate our military efforts with the US in Syria”, but opposes “delays that enable terrorists to attack,” said Lavrov.

Speaking at a press conference on Monday with Finnish counterpart Timo Soini, Lavrov expressed his hope on the prospect partners to play fair, and not attempt taking advantage of the situation to take on different schemes.

“We hope our US partners will honestly cooperate with us without seeking to implement plan B or C behind our backs,” he said.

http://english.aawsat.com/2016/06/article55352078/russian-air-power-playing-major-role-raqqa-battles

 

New Trigger  china military intervention syria- May 4, 2016

China’s military arrive in Syria to help Russia !

China will be helping out the Syrian government in the fight against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL/ISIS) by sending “military advisers,” media reports have claimed.

“More Chinese troops will be arriving in the coming weeks,” a Syrian army official told the Lebanon-based news website Al-Masdar Al-‘Arabi. The report claims that a Chinese naval vessel is on its way to Syria with dozens of “military advisers” on board. They will reportedly be followed by troops. The ship is said to have passed the Suez Canal in Egypt and be making its way through the Mediterranean Sea.

http://www.alamongordo.com/china-military-arrive-in-syria-to-help-russia/

 

 

Arab expulsion from parliament by OMRI BOEHM

01/04/2016

http://www.mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1650:the-expulsion-from-parliament&catid=272:palestine&Itemid=2188

 

Please read very carefully this article written by Omri Boehm: The Israeli philosopher, he is a professor at the New School for Social Research in New York. The article written for Die Zeit is translated in English since most of our readers don't read German, please accept my excuse if the translation is not accurate. The subject is worthy to be handled since the civil war in Syria is hiding a long term strategy behind the second round of Sykes Picot and explicitly analysed by our stochastic model step by step. This article is trying to consolidate the theory through new evidence and a new trigger which lead us to the expected convergence of the model. Hope is still there but science is the unique instrument to overcome the coming tsunami.

 

 

2016 Russia's new trigger

Dear Hassan unfortunately you might not be mistaken. But, the dramatic reality on the ground, it seems, lead the Russians to this step of classical interest-lead Realpolitik. Things which had been done in 4 years, cannot be made undone: large and widespread destructions. If this is so, it's nothing else than the continuation of the great-power interferences, which began with Sykes-Picot (which in fact was a "Sykes-Picot +: see the letter of Sir Edward Grey to Paul Cambon, 15 Mai 1916 - I have further the honour to state that, in order to make the agreement complete, His Majesty's Government are proposing to the Russian (Tsarist) Government to exchange notes analogous to those exchanged by the latter and your Excellency's Government on the 26th April last. Copies of these notes will be communicated to your Excellency as soon as exchanged. I am sad to say Guenter

Mr. Ryabkov's Syrian federation "hint" !!! Dear Amin, dear friends Everyone agrees (I think) that the most important Middle East breaking News is Putin's withdrawal declaration from Syria, and if we couple this with the statement of the deputy foreign minister (Mr Ryabkov) which lead to understand (with a margin of misinterpretation) that Russia have nothing against such development I would like here to give my reading of such new realty as the following The Russian federation is on the way to find a common ground with the Americans (not only in Syria, but where Syria could play a triggering role) The main obstacle against such devolvement is the role (or the absence of it) of the president Bachar El-Assad in the Syrian institutional future, (where a federation is a de-facto disappearance of the post of president as it is now, which transforms it to something comparable to the presidency in Iraq Such would be in line with what Obama is after on this point, on the hand would spare Putin the image of trading his allies against interests Obviously this would include a price to be paid to the federation, which is its existence in Tartous (naval base) and Hmemim (Air base) with some other oil and energy deals with the west and Gulf States This is my reading, and I "pray" to be mistaken 16march2016 Good night

 

Reminder

Reaction to Russia’s military intervention in Syria shows that the lack of knowledge of the Syrian political landscape on the part of Western political leaders and media is hindering the adoption of more constructive policies. During the past four years, over-simplifications and wishful thinking have prevented any realistic attempt to end the civil war, mitigate its effects or stop it from spreading to other countries.

...As long ago as August 2012 the Defence Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm, said in a report first disclosed earlier this year that the “Salafists [Islamic fundamentalists], the Muslim Brotherhood and AQI [al-Qaeda in Iraq, later Isis] are the major forces driving the insurgency in Syria.” ...

GOLD VS US$

..."En augmentant systématiquement leurs réserves d’or, la Russie et la Chine continuent à dépouiller inexorablement le dollar américain de son statut de monnaie de réserve mondiale."

..."Aujourd’hui, l’Ukraine et la Syrie sont les théâtres de la guerre chaude de l’Amérique contre la Russie et l’Union européenne est le théâtre de la guerre économique de l’Amérique contre la Russie (il est intéressant de noter que tandis que les entrepreneurs européens souffrent sous les sanctions imposées à la Russie, leurs concurrents américains sont occupés à signer de nouveaux contrats lucratifs avec Moscou)"

..."Nous sommes très loin des champs de bataille de l’État islamique et de DAESH  et des attentats de Paris et de Bamako. Pourtant, nous sommes au cœur réel du conflit qui oppose les deux camps impérialistes rivaux qui inexorablement nous entrainent vers une guerre mondiale. Robert Bibeau. Les7duQuébec.com"

http://www.les7duquebec.com/7-au-front/le-dessous-des-cartes-dans-laffrontement-russo-americain/

Vendredi 4 décembre 2015

 

Evidence or Confession?

Reaction to Russia’s military intervention in Syria shows that the lack of knowledge of the Syrian political landscape on the part of Western political leaders and media is hindering the adoption of more constructive policies. During the past four years, over-simplifications and wishful thinking have prevented any realistic attempt to end the civil war, mitigate its effects or stop it from spreading to other countries.

...As long ago as August 2012 the Defence Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm, said in a report first disclosed earlier this year that the “Salafists [Islamic fundamentalists], the Muslim Brotherhood and AQI [al-Qaeda in Iraq, later Isis] are the major forces driving the insurgency in Syria.” ...

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-crisis-the-west-wrings-its-hands-in-horror-but-it-was-our-folly-that-helped-create-this-a6677621.html

 

Fighting between government forces and the umbrella group the Army of Islam in Douma, near Damascus this week Reuters

Genocide of the Syrian people

 

I. New trigger: US containment strategy for ISIS vs Moscow, undertaking an earnest effort to fight terror in Syria

Moscow, realizing that instead of undertaking an earnest effort to fight terror in Syria, the US had simply adopted a containment strategy for ISIS while holding the group up to the public as the boogeyman par excellence, publicly invited Washington to join Russia in a once-and-for-all push to wipe Islamic State from the face of the earth. Of course The Kremlin knew the US wanted no such thing until Assad was gone, but by extending the invitation, Putin had literally called Washington’s bluff, forcing The White House to either admit that this isn’t about ISIS at all, or else join Russia in fighting them. The genius of that move is that if Washington does indeed coordinate its efforts to fight ISIS with Moscow, the US will be fighting to stabilize the very regime it sought to oust.

 

II. Background: Qatar-Turkey pipeline issue vs Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline issue

In 2009 - the same year former French foreign minister Dumas alleges the British began planning operations in Syria - Assad refused to sign a proposed agreement with Qatar that would run a pipeline from the latter's North field, contiguous with Iran's South Pars field, through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and on to Turkey, with a view to supply European markets - albeit crucially bypassing Russia. Assad's rationale was "to protect the interests of [his] Russian ally, which is Europe's top supplier of natural gas."

The Islamic Pipeline which, you’ll note on the map below, goes from Iran through Iraq (where Suleimani’s influence is legendary both in government and militarily through the various Shiite militias battling ISIS) to Syria and, conveniently, through Lebanon which works out very nicely for Hezbollah.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-20/us-syria-strategy-officially-unravels-kerry-admits-timetable-assad-exit-completely-u

 

REMINDER

"Having no strategy(1)" is by itself a strategy . Objective: Dismantling Syria after Irak.

(1) President Obama first declaration is followed few weeks later with a clearer one " having no complete strategy"  at G7 meeting.

Starting date for the process of dismantling Syria:28 october 2008, three years before the "Arab Spring".

http://www.mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=87:attaque-americaine-en-syrie-des-forces-hors-controle-&catid=273:vision&Itemid=74

 

Analysis and comments

 

French Source[1],

Une intervention préparée par l'OTAN - Canard enchaîné du mercredi 23 novembre 2011

http://www.mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1024:une-intervention-preparee-par-lotan-canard-enchaine-du-mercredi-23-novembre-2011&catid=269:syrie&Itemid=1490


[1] Cette mise à jour est effectuée pour assurer la compatibilité avec notre modèle stochastique, car à l’époque où on a écrit cet article la guerre civile n’avait pas encore éclatée, on peut dire qu’elle était en préparation au détriment des milliers de Syriens qui allaient subir la mort et l’exode.

L’article du canard enchaîné est une des premières alarmes, le mensonge d'aujourd'hui (30 septembre 2015) où Paris attaque Damas pour atrocité  contre les civils entre 2011 et 2O13, peut-il passer inaperçu, alors que l'intervention de l'OTAN a été dénoncée par la presse française (voir l'article du canard enchaîné du 23 novembre 2011). Hélas la presse démocratique n’est plus entendue.


http://www.mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=87:attaque-americaine-en-syrie-des-forces-hors-controle-&catid=273:vision&Itemid=74

 

Une intervention préparée par l'OTAN - Canard enchaîné du mercredi 23 novembre 2011

End of update 30 september 2015

PREAMBLE

Whoever is the beneficiary of this war, the target is dismantling Syria and Lebanon after Iraq. Unfortunately journalists are not aware of this fact and Robert Fisk is one of them. As for experts in geopolitics the subject is not discussed outside specialised audience.

The only unpredictable consequence of this war is: what is the impact of foreign “evils” on their country of origin? Is this new form of “Ebola germ” controllable? In modelling, the approach is economic as well for Ebola germ. The only possible divergence would be: how to reformulate “Morality”?

To go deeper in this analysis the reader should refer to the following definition:

"In probability theory, a purely stochastic system is one whose state is non-deterministic (i.e., "random") so that the subsequent state of the system is determined probabilistically. Any system or process that must be analyzed using probability theory is stochastic at least in part.[1][2] Stochastic systems and processes play a fundamental role in mathematical models of phenomena in many fields of science, engineering, and economics.

Stochastic comes from the Greek word στόχος, which means "aim". It also denotes a target stick; the pattern of arrows around a target stick stuck in a hillside is representative of what is stochastic".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic

The following reference is being forward by Anis Balafrej:

" On stochastic proximal gradient algorithms"


LAST ADDED PARAGRAPHS

 

IV-9-6  High Frequent adjustment and revision With increasing Risk of false Convergence or Possible long term  convergence by the end of summer 2015

 

Part: XVII -Speculation and/or Overbid purposes

Before we explore this issue, let us look at a short analysis: “Comparative Conflicts: Ukraine and Syria”

By by Mark N. Katz Published on March 4th, 2015, following are some extracts:

“Both conflicts have certain similarities. One is that Russia is playing an important role in both conflicts. Although it supports the government’s efforts to combat the rebels in Syria, Moscow is supporting the rebels fighting against the government in Ukraine.”

“There is one especially important difference between the two conflicts: while the primary international dimension of the one in Ukraine is Russia versus the West, this is not the case in Syria where the primary international dimension is Iran versus the Sunni Arabs. What this suggests is that if Russia and the West could actually agree to end the fighting in Ukraine, they could each cajole their Ukrainian allies to go along with them. In Syria, however, any agreement between Russia and the West on ending the conflict could have very little impact either on the main regional adversaries involved there (Iran on the one hand and the Gulf Arab states on the other) or on the main local adversaries (the Assad regime on the one hand and IS and the al-Nusra Front on the other)—especially given the apparent marginalization of the moderate Syrian opposition.”

“As bad as the conflict in Ukraine is, then, the one in Syria appears to be the more intractable as well as more likely to spread. Indeed, although the conflict in Ukraine has not spread to the Middle East, the conflict in Syria has already spread into Europe both in the form of the recruitment of young Europeans to join the ranks of IS in Syria and of IS-inspired assassinations in France, Belgium, and Denmark.”

http://www.lobelog.com/comparative-conflicts-ukraine-and-syria/

 

 

PART XVI-SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER based on participative intelligence

Political Instrumentalization of Islam in a Violent State Crisis: The Case of Syria

Published online: 16 Jul 2015

Hakim Khatiba*

pages 341-361

Journal of Applied Security Research

Volume 10, Issue 3, 2015

 

Abstract

 

A misconception has emerged in the empirical literature about the nature of the relationship between politics and Islam. It has been assumed that Islam, based on specific features in the Islamic religion and culture, had dominated politics in the Middle East, thus Islamic movements and formations have been responsible for the increase of political use of Islam overlooking the role of the state in pushing religion into the political domain. This article attempts to analyze the reasons of why political instrumentalization of Islam increases in the Syrian violent conflict showing that the prominence of Islamic rhetoric does not owe to specific features of the Islamic religion and culture but rather to the exploitation of religion in mobilization, contestation, and outbidding processes. Politics dominate religion in the Syrian conflict. Political instrumentalization of Islam is more likely to remain on the rise in the Syrian violent crisis causing serious implications on peace building and leading to a political vicious cycle that increases radicalization, deepens division, and hampers political development toward political reconciliation. The state instrumentalized religion from the early days of the uprising. Insurgent formations have become fragmented based on Islamic interpretations. Foreignism and interventionism contributed to the prominence of religion.

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19361610.2015.1038769#.Vcx-FLXiyCk

1038769#.Vcx-FLXiyCk

Editor’s Note:

8 march 2014 we started this generalized model which is  permanently updated according to new "triggers".

The reader may realize that there is no fiction in the so-called "Sykes Picot Map":

http://www.mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=565:-q-q-&catid=273:vision&Itemid=875

Should human brain anticipate next conflict events and provide right solutions to resolve them?

This depends on his level of Morality. A valuable work has been performed by the anthropolog Monica Heintz:

Monica Heintz – Studying morality in anthropology: I- What is ‘morality’? II- Universalism versus Cultural Relativism III

- The Question of Freedom in anthropological research IV- Conclusion- Comment "My own perception" by Amin Elsaleh

This might help decision makers to correct their anticipation of current worldwide conflicts resolution and avoid those

triggers who might be possibly generated by the stochastic model after a certain number of successful iterations where false

convergence could no more be considered as a possible issue.

PART XV - No more false convergence

Wednesday 5 august 2015

Yes, It Is Islamic Extremism—But Why?

“…there are a dozen good reasons why there is bad blood between the West and the Middle East today, without any reference to Islam or to religion.

 

…Most of these reasons are well known: the Crusades (a western economic, social and geopolitical adventure), imperialism, colonialism, western control of Middle Eastern energy resources, imposition of pro-western dictatorships, endless western political and military interventions, redrawing borders, western creation of the state of Israel, US invasions and wars, biased US policies over decades towards the Palestinian issue, etc., etc. None of this relates to Islam.

…ISIS is through and through a self-proclaimed Islamist movement. In many senses it represents established Wahhabi theology in its rigid, ahistorical interpretations of Islam. But it adds savage, capricious, sweeping and often distorted religious justification for its violence;

…Let’s not forget one Arab leader’s comment to an American: “Your 9/11 is our 24/7.”

…So it’s not about blaming the West, or blaming Islam. It’s about identifying the sources of violence—on all sides—that brought us to where we are today. The West has much to answer for. And here too it is important for Muslims to contemplate what further actions they need to take on their side under these desperate conditions to help overcome this impasse, including drawing on the contributions of Muslims in the West. Only then can West and East identify the paths that will slowly begin to lead us out of this mess we have all landed ourselves in.

http://grahamefuller.com/yes-it-is-islamic-extremism-but-why/

 

Christian Amphoux contribution "La guerre en islam, pourquoi ?" War within Islam, Why? describes external or visible reasons & internal reasons related to the history of Califat since the prophet's moral and civic education golden age ending by stagnation in different domains in particular scientific and Psychology and Philosophy of Mind. This stagnation reinforces  humiliation and frustration and when combined to wisdom and ancient tradition rejection, lead to Islamist movement in other words to Islamic Extremism.

 

PART XIV

Friday 3 july 2015

Towards more model convergence regardless the issue of false convergence

Background:

Declassified docs: Hillary aided rise of ISIS

Published: 05/27/2015

By Jerome R. Corsi WND

NEW YORKMore than 100 pages of previously classified Department of Defense and Department of State documents implicate the Obama administration in a cover-up to obscure the role Hillary Clinton and the State Department played in the rise of ISIS.

The documents were obtained in a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit filed by the Washington watchdog Judicial Watch.

They confirm WND reporting over the past three years of evidence that U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens was involved in shipping weapons from Benghazi to support the al-Qaida-affiliated militias fighting the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, effectively arming the Sunni jihadists who morphed into ISIS.

http://www.wnd.com/2015/05/declassified-docs-hillary-aided-rise-of-isis/#7xokQh0qe1wGvMu3.99

TRIAL and ERROR APPROACH

Jun 30, 2015 Putin’s Plans For New Quartet To Defeat Islamic State

“Russia is now refocusing the main emphasis away from the survival of the Assad regime and onto IS as the most pressing danger; Putin called on major regional powers, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, to put aside their campaign against President Assad and join forces with the regime against IS. The suggestion is that a new coalition to combat the extremists should be formed pitting Riyadh and Damascus, probably along with Ankara and Amman, against IS.”

NOTE:” The whole region has become an endless battle ground in this ‘game of nations’ which has destroyed half of Syria and displaced four million of her citizens. May God have mercy »

http://www.raialyoum.com/?p=280108

PART XIII

 

What Should We Do if the Islamic State

Wins?

BY STEPHEN M. WALT

EXTRACT: "

Despite its bloodthirsty and gruesome tactics, the Islamic State is not, in fact, a powerful global actor. Its message attracts recruits among marginalized youth in other countries, but attracting perhaps 25,000 ill-trained followers from a global population of more than 7 billion is not that significant. It may even be a net gain if these people leave their countries of origin and then get to experience the harsh realities of jihadi rule."https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/10/what-should-we-do-if-isis-islamic-state-wins-containment/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Flashpoints&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign

 

 

PART XII

Now the truth emerges: how the US fuelled the rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq

Seumas Milne

Wednesday 3 June 2015

The sectarian terror group won’t be defeated by the western states that incubated it in the first place

 

 

"In reality, US and western policy in the conflagration that is now the Middle East is in the classic mould of imperial divide-and-rule. American forces bomb one set of rebels while backing another in Syria, and mount what are effectively joint military operations with Iran against Isis in Iraq while supporting Saudi Arabia’s military campaign against Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen. However confused US policy may often be, a weak, partitioned Iraq and Syria fit such an approach perfectly.

What’s clear is that Isis and its monstrosities won’t be defeated by the same powers that brought it to Iraq and Syria in the first place, or whose open and covert war-making has fostered it in the years since. Endless western military interventions in the Middle East have brought only destruction and division. It’s the people of the region who can cure this disease – not those who incubated the virus.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/03/us-isis-syria-iraq

PART XI

 

‘Obama at War’ Shows How Syria Was Lost

 

BY JEFF STEIN 5/26/15 AT 2:23 PM

“But Obama now finds himself exactly where he didn't want to be: trying to defeat a brutal terrorist group in Iraq and Syria without dragging America into a prolonged regional conflict.” Or, as Michael Corleone put it in Godfather III, “Just when I thought I was out...they pull me back in.”

General Martin Dempsey, the outgoing Joint Chiefs chairman, toldFrontline. That was just one of “several things that surprised us about ISIL,” he says. “The degree to which they were able to form their own coalition, both inside of Syria and inside of northwestern Iraq, the military capability that they exhibited, the collapse of the Iraq Security Forces. Yeah, in those initial days, there were a few surprises.”

Robert Ford ( the previous American ambassador to Damascus ) tells Martin Smith (the narrator of Frontline segment) “I worry now that we're too little and we're too late.” To say the least. “You know, now they're talking about training 5,000 to 10,000 Syrians to fight against the Islamic State,” Ford adds. Estimates of the number of ISIS fighters range wildly, from tens of thousands to over 200,000.

 

http://www.newsweek.com/barack-obama-frontline-syria-335683

 

PARTX

Convergence or false convergence, THAT is the question for summer's homework

 

Things are becoming clearer with multiple dead ends expected this summer in preparation for a crucial happy/worst end depending on where we are positioned.

The stochastic model outcome is becoming precise according to new triggers accelerating its possible "convergence or false convergence", it’s up to you to finalise your homework for this summer.

Sunday May 24, 2015

Amid the ruins of Syria, is Bashar al-Assad now finally facing the end?

As Isis surges ahead and the Syrian regime teeters on the brink of collapse, our Middle East correspondent, winner of the 2015 Orwell prize for journalism, reports on the deadly struggle for dominance in the region:

"

Out of all the recent chaos – the looming destruction of a cradle of civilisation, resurgent anti-Assad fighters and the unchecked brutality of the jihadists – a rare clarity has emerged. The region’s main powers are now openly locked in a struggle for the destiny of the region – and of Syria in particular – that can only be stopped with a globally brokered solution.

“Iran said the key to the Arab world was Syria,” said the Saudi official. “Well, we agree with them.” And Riyadh is no longer worried about showing it.

"

 

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/24/syria-iran-isis-battle-arab-world

Thu May 21, 2015

Islamic State says it has full control of Syria's Palmyra

“The twin successes not only pile pressure on Damascus and Baghdad but throw doubt on a U.S. strategy of relying almost exclusively on air strikes to support the fight against Islamic State.

U.S. and coalition forces had conducted 18 air strikes against Islamic State targets in Syria and Iraq since Wednesday, the U.S. military said.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/21/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKBN0O60KH20150521

Friday 22 May 2015

First Ramadi, then Palmyra: Isis shows it can storm bastions of Syria and Iraq

“Officials who had fled Palmyra said jets from the US-led coalition that had bombed Isis targets elsewhere in the country had not joined the fight. US jets were instrumental in expelling the terror group from the two cities it has lost so far, Kobani, in Syria’s north, and Tikrit, in central Iraq.”

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/21/isis-palmyra-ramadi-advances-say-more-about-state-weakness-than-jihadi-strength


21 february 2015
Modelling success thanks to recent validation
“If we define our strategy using computer modelling, we may realize that US and IRAN shares many objectives. Same between IRAN and ISRAEL. There’s one problem to solve:
IRAN is an Islamic Republic which sponsors terrorism”. Since 2006 OBAMA was influenced by the Study group on IRAK, Lee Hamilton and James Baker who asked president
Bush to withdraw from IRAK, to concentrate his effort on Afghanistan, to reactivate Israel-Palestine peace process and to open dialog with IRAN and its Partner SYRIA.”(*)
THE NEW TRIGGER: Prime minister Netanyahu is visiting the Congress transgressing diplomatic channel. This might accelerate US and IRAN nuclear deal or this might
Slowdown it, a model does always need triggers to work.
(*) an extract from LE FIGARO newspaper of 21-22 feb. 2015
11 february 2015
Clarification: Is there some link between Syrian and Ukrainian wars?
The following extract refers to Hélène Carrère d’Encausse article in “LE FIGARO” 8 february 2015: “When Gorbatchev accepted Germany reunification in 1990, he obtained Nato
Commitment not to be positioned near Russia borders, which is no more the case if Ukrainia is integrated within Nato…Why Occident is fighting on two fronts: Ukrainia & Middle-East?
Wouldn’t be most simple to slowdown pressure on Ukrainian folder with commitment not to become closer to Russia borderlines and asking Poutine to commit himself on Syrian and
Iranian issues and participate in fighting extremists (new settlers-editor’s note)?”
30 january 2015

http://www.newsweek.com/barack-obama-frontline-syria-335683

 

21 february 2015

Modelling success thanks to recent validation

“If we define our strategy using computer modelling, we may realize that US and IRAN shares many objectives. Same between IRAN and ISRAEL. There’s one problem to solve:
IRAN is an Islamic Republic which sponsors terrorism”. Since 2006 OBAMA was influenced by the Study group on IRAK, Lee Hamilton and James Baker who asked president
Bush to withdraw from IRAK, to concentrate his effort on Afghanistan, to reactivate Israel-Palestine peace process and to open dialog with IRAN and its Partner SYRIA.”(*)
THE NEW TRIGGER: Prime minister Netanyahu is visiting the Congress transgressing diplomatic channel. This might accelerate US and IRAN nuclear deal or this might
Slowdown it, a model does always need triggers to work.
(*) an extract from LE FIGARO newspaper of 21-22 feb. 2015

 

5 january 2015

PART IX

New trigger towards Syrian population suffocation process

Hassan Zineddin wrote " Imposing an entry visa for Syrian seeking entry to Lebanon (or taking any steps in this direction) is not once more happening among others... nor is it so unimportant...  What even Cyprus did not dare doing (the Syrians can move freely in the island without a visa since Sykes-Picot till now) is about to become a sad reality ... a trivialization of the logic of the walls in our region ... an extension to those under construction in the southern part of our Bilad Ech'Cham .."

A trigger in modelling is an accelerator, is it towards conflict resolution or towards more dismantling and deterioration? as if the price of millions of syrians soul's wounded, those who are still alive, is not enough? unfortunately models don't handle morality.

6 january 2015

Part VIII

New trigger towards CHAOS generalization

Slaughter of the innocents at "Charlie Hebdo" is a new challenge and a new trigger. If CHAOS is generalized is this "false convergence" or undiscovered/unpredictable convergence? Rethinking morality is more and more urgent, this might possibly slowdown a certain type of new triggers, unnamed yet.

 

PART VII

15 May 2015

How many expected dead ends this summer?


Dear Amin

I totally agree about the dead end the Saudis got themselves into in Yemen and they don't know how to get out of it... but the Saudis are not alone in this and this is not new... it's a development of a scene. Qatar and the NEO Ottomans has started much earlier in Syria... the bet against middle east geopolitical status is the mother dead end those "locals" are  stuck into four years non-stop bike riding which cannot stop without risking their fall...

So the one way "trip" in Syria (in which Qalamoon incarnates one product of such geopolitical reality) is their sad fate, even their bosses (in Washington and elsewhere in 5+1 other capitals) who ordered it in the first place are in difficulty remodelling it at least pragmatically... which is precipitating another dead end (the old-new Saudi-Israeli  alliance hinted to by Netanyahu during last Gaza carnage)... which has already precipitated Qatari-French rafale "reward" and "upgraded" Holland  to a first foreign host in GCC summit meeting... which is behind the upcoming Camp David  reaction to such rebellious signals...

That's why not Geneva III nor any place else could help in a game where dead ends are the only outcome... where only the geo will decide who deserve to stay and who will become shameful history

Hassan

Date: Sat, 9 May 2015 16:31:09 +0200
From: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

Subject: between convergence & false convergence

Dear Hassan,

How can we distinguish between convergence or false convergence? Yemen
issue subscribes in the middle of these two approaches: Saudi Arabia and
their allies can't destroy the Houtites, the weakness of their
intervention is that they can't withdraw from the battle; their failure
is deterministic; the Qalamoun battle subscribes within the same
framework. Geneva might not take place because many issues are in
standby position: Ukrainia and Iranian nuclear issues are not going to
be solved quickly. Arabs should change their motivation which should
subscribe within globalization framework, please read the following
analysis of Charif Rifai and come back to me to enhance our joint
analysis:

http://mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1599:entre-lusure-et-louverture-&catid=273:vision&Itemid=2137

Yours
Amin

PART VI

Continuity

Ukrainian and Syrian wars are evolving towards more casualities and irreversible situations: dismantling process is ongoing. Some remarks might be useful, but they can’t reverse the wheel, like this one:

"

What happened ten days before (the Golan Heights, Syria) and the response of yesterday (the Shebaa Farms, Lebanon) inaugurates another logic of the Middle East's conflict which replaces that of the "table" that drags since Oslo without any perspective that deserves the name ...

It may be a bit early to say : What is missing is an Israeli as strong and clairvoyant as De Gaulle who understood that the era of colonialism  over... and it is about time for the last settlers (of our contemporary history) to pack their suitcases ..."

 

The question remains: what is the correlation between Ukrainia and Middle East? New triggers shall soon reactivate the stochastic model and bring us more evidence of lack of geopolitical vision.

Hassan

6 january 2015

Part V

New trigger towards CHAOS generalization

Slaughter of the innocents at "Charlie Hebdo" is a new challenge and a new trigger. If CHAOS is generalized is this "false convergence" or undiscovered/unpredictable convergence? Rethinking morality is more and more urgent, this might possibly slowdown a certain type of new triggers, unnamed yet.

5 january 201


 

PART IV

New trigger towards Syrian population suffocation process

Hassan Zineddin wrote " Imposing an entry visa for Syrian seeking entry to Lebanon (or taking any steps in this direction) is not once more happening among others... nor is it so unimportant...  What even Cyprus did not dare doing (the Syrians can move freely in the island without a visa since Sykes-Picot till now) is about to become a sad reality ... a trivialization of the logic of the walls in our region ... an extension to those under construction in the southern part of our Bilad Ech'Cham .."

A trigger in modelling is an accelerator, is it towards conflict resolution or towards more dismantling and deterioration? as if the price of millions of syrians soul's wounded, those who are still alive, is not enough? unfortunately models don't handle morality.

 

PART III

Ya'alon hints at Syria strikes: Israel will get to anyone who arms our enemies

11 dec. 2014

Speaking at an event honoring Israel's wounded in war and terror, Ya'alon made an unusually direct reference to the alleged strike, saying that "whoever tries to arm our enemies should know we will reach any place at any time to thwart their plans."

The German news agency DPA reported that the Damascus airport warehouses reportedly targeted by the Israeli air strikes held Iranian missile systems destined for Hezbollah.

A separate strike near Dimas, approximately half-way between Damascus and the Lebanese border, reportedly hit a Hezbollah convoy heading to Lebanon.

Advanced Iranian drones deployed with Syrian troops and Hezbollah forces were also hit, a Syrian official said.

Also on Monday, Russia demanded an explanation from Israel about the alleged strikes. "Moscow is deeply worried by this dangerous development, the circumstances of which demand an explanation," Russian foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said.

Sources

 

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/1.630776

PART II

"Hagel was out of step with the administration on Isis, having urged the White House to clarify its stance on ushering the Syrian dictator, Bashar al-Assad, out of power and bizarrely inflating the threat Isis posed, calling it “an imminent threat to every interest we have” in an August press conference. While the administration has publicly ruled out using US ground forces in combat in Iraq, Hagel and particularly the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, floated precisely that as an option in testimony earlier this month.

A man who never quite found his footing as Pentagon chief, Hagel also testified that the US strategy against Isis – which focuses on Iraq primarily and Syria peripherally – was working, even as it undergoes frequent adjustment and revision.

Yet the strategy has come under criticism from hawks as well as doves. Hawks want a deeper US commitment of air as well as ground forces to beating Isis back, while doves are alarmed at the shifting of US war aims and commensurate resources. The next chairman of the Senate armed services committee, the Arizona Republican John McCain, wants a more forceful US response to Isis and had long fallen out with his former friend Hagel.

In the five months since Isis seized Mosul, Obama has authorized 3,000 new troops to advise and train Iraqis, and expanded an air war into Syria. Pentagon efforts to field a Syrian proxy force have barely begun and are expected to take a year before yielding the first capable units.

Hagel, a Vietnam combat veteran and a noncommissioned army officer, was not expected to be a wartime defense secretary, instead brought in to manage the downsizing of US ground forces and shore up the administration’s at-times uneasy relationship with the military. His Senate confirmation hearing saw the former senator rambling and unfocused; he mischaracterized the administration’s position on Iran. Among Hagel’s more forceful positions early in office was to warn against US involvement in the Syrian civil war."

SOURCES

Chuck Hagel forced to step down as US defense secretary

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/nov/24/chuck-hagel-step-down-us-defence-secretary

25 nov. 2014

 

PART I

" And, as you know we've had regular meetings that the President has joined with his national security team on this issue and Syria has been an important subject at those meetings. And I think the President wants to make sure that we're asking hard questions about what we're targeting in Syria, how we're able to degrade ISIL but also how we're supporting opposition and building them up as a counterweight to ISIL but also ultimately of course to the Assad regime."

....

"But with the Free Syrian Army struggling in a two-front battle against al-Assad's forces and extremists from both ISIS and other extremist groups such as al-Nusra, U.S. officials recognize the "Iraq first" strategy is untenable."

...

"Many of the President's top national security advisers, including Secretary of State John Kerry, have long argued that Washington's political strategy was unrealistic."

...

"Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel sent a blunt memo to National Security Adviser Susan Rice in October that a senior U.S. official told CNN's Barbara Starr was "expressing concern about overall Syria strategy" and expressing a fear that the U.S. is risking its gains in the war against ISIS if adjustments are not made. The official said the focus of the memo was the "need to have a sharper view of what do about the Assad regime."

Related: Hagel wrote memo to White House expressing concern about Syria

""It has been pretty clear for some time that supporting the moderate opposition in the hopes of toppling Assad, isn't going to work," another senior official said."

...

"The air campaign so far has infuriated the Syrians fighting the regime. For the first time since the Syrian uprising started in 2011 they are burning American flags because they think we are helping the regime instead of helping them."

Sources: Obama seeks new Syria strategy review to deal with ISIS, al-Assad

By Elise Labott, CNN Global Affairs Correspondent
November 13, 2014 -- Updated 1436 GMT (2236 HKT)

 

IV-9-5 Moral anaesthesia

By Tikva Honig-Parnass

Introduction

The aim of this article is to pinpoint the explicit and implicit support of the Zionist Left intellectuals usually identified with Labor or Meretz for the brutal attacks on Gaza since 2006. This support is a new stage in the Left intellectuals’ loyalty to the state and its oppressive policies against the Palestinian people. The viciousness of mass murder and horrid devastation of Gaza, chiefly in the recent Operation Protective Edge, have reached unprecedented levels. Their support by the “most enlightened” public figures in Israeli society amounts to total disregard for basic human rights and international lawsand erases any meaningful difference between them and the Right…

… As confirmed by Haaretz senior political commentator:

The enormous power was sent to Gaza not only or even mainly in order to hit the military infrastructure of Hamas. The main mission that the political level assigned to the army was to dismantle the civil infrastructure (emphasis added) of the regime.[ix]

On 30 December, 2008, David Grossman’s “Fight Fire with a Cease-Fire,”

Indeed, all the decision-makers knew in advance that a heavy disaster was imminent in Gaza, says Sternhell:

The army committed precisely the directives it received from their moral leaders, commanders and the government. They [the army] did not seek intentionally to kill civilians. They only bombed, eliminated and leveled everything which seemed necessary for observation, maneuver and advance, since every building could be a combat position for Hamas.[xii]

http://www.palestinechronicle.com/zionist-left-support-for-bloody-assaults-on-gaza-signifies-its-erasure-from-israels-political-map/#.VFPcg1d_6Xw

 

IV-9-4 How a system is determined probabilistically? Successful Scenario (present and ongoing)

 

I- 09-10-2010: Aïn Al-Arab (Kobani) partial/or final occupation is a result of a convergent scenario, others of the same type will follow. One of them is a predictable one.

II- DAESH access to Lebanese coast (ongoing process).

III - long duration of two wars apparently disconnected: in Ukrainia and in Lebanon-Syria-Gaza (ongoing process).

IV – US successful involvement in northern Syria. Extracts from the reference below:

http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/clueless-americas-ignorance-middle-east-will-shock-you-1866958275

“Given the US has enormous interests in the Middle East, you would expect your average American to have a good grasp of what the national headlines mean. Especially as the US has invested more treasure, sold more arms, sent more soldiers, lost more lives, and fought more wars than in any other region in the world.”

V- Extract from Robert Fisk : With US-led air strikes on Isis intensifying, it’s a good time to be an arms giant like Lockheed Martin

Sunday 19 October 2014

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/with-usled-strikes-on-isis-intensifying-its-a-good-time-to-be-a-shareholder-in-the-merchants-of-death-9804918.html

“Let us leave out here the political cost of this conflict. After all, the war against Isis is breeding Isis. For every dead Isis member, we are creating three of four more. And if Isis really is the “apocalyptic”, “evil”, “end-of-the-world” institution we have been told it is – my words come from the Pentagon and our politicians, of course – then every increase in profits for Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics is creating yet more Isis fighters. So every drone or F/A-18 fighter-bomber we send is the carrier of a virus, every missile an Ebola germ for the future of the world. Think about that. »

 

ESSAY FULL TEXT

 

THE PROPOSED MECHANISM

 


Matching two approaches: FuturICT project and learning by doing approach according to Predictable and Unpredictable Events

I- FuturICT Project Overview


FuturICT as a whole will act as a Knowledge Accelerator, turning massive data into knowledge and technological progress.

In this way, FuturICT will create the scientific methods and ICT platforms needed to address planetary-scale challenges and

opportunities in the 21st century.

Specifically, FuturICT will build a sophisticated simulation, visualization and participation platform, called the Living Earth Platform.

This platform will power Exploratory, to detect and mitigate crises, and Participatory Platforms, to support the decision-making

of policy-makers, business people and citizens, and to facilitate a better social, economic and political participation.

- See more at:

 

http://www.futurict.eu/the-project/overview#sthash.g9IHj1Y5.dpuf

 

II- LEARNING BY DOING APPROACH

 

Learning by doing signifies that “players” should generate a content which contribute to control current simulation objectives.

In the “learn by doing” world of serious games, learners are frequently called upon to “do” things those results in the generation

of content.

In fact, learner generated content will be recognized as one of the principle design mechanisms for learners to demonstrate mastery of a game’s learning objectives. What tools will learners use? What standards will apply? What new learning approaches may or may not result as a function of this technical capability? Proposed modelling corresponds to the request:

Handling human social-technical dimension; in particular man-system interface including positioning technology at man services


Simulation is used to trigger iterative interactions and create required environment for virtual learning.

Many objectives should be targeted:

1. Engine should trace “player” behaviour, evaluate its capabilities and quickly meet its needs.


2. Immersion generated by simulation enables training and experimentation of behaviour strategies, in particular learning “by doing”.

Engine should use following resources:

a) Tools to be customized by trainers.

b) Applied standards.

c) New learning approaches discovery through obtained results, whether these approaches are positive or negative, in the sense

of improving technology performance of assembled prototypes.

III- How SPDF (Standard Process Description Format) may produce a universal engine to run the stochastic model?


SPDF consists of two parts:

a. message structured-data part (including semantics) and,

b. process description part (with higher level of semantics).

Two key outputs of the SPDF research will be a process description specification and framework for the extraction of semantics

from legacy systems.

Note that:

1. The more we may have semantic rules the more unpredictable events are controlled.

2. Acquired knowledge to elaborate semantic rules for unpredictable events requires many occurrences of the stochastic model.

3. Convergence shall not be reached until getting more qualitative semantic rules.

4. Performing dynamically a given scenario is the goal of the proposed messaging system.

IV- VALIDATION

IV-1 TARGET

Use the power of information to: explore social and economic life on Earth and discover options for a sustainable future.

IV-2 HOW?

Use Iterative approach to reach convergence and resolution.

IV-3 WEAKNESS

To reach False Convergence, instead of: Convergence.

IV-4 RECOMMENDATION


• Use successive approach mechanism with procedure by elimination.

• Associate “Learning by doing” approach with an Engine to: trace “player” behaviour, evaluate its capabilities and quickly meet its needs.

• Build a “Knowledge Accelerator” with that Engine to handle large volume of accessible data for each conflict and run large number of iterations to reach convergence of the stochastic model.

IV-5 SUCCESS KEY FACTOR

 

STOCHASTIC MODEL CONVERGENCE IS LARGELY DEPENDANT ON WORLDWIDE CULTURAL HERITAGE

 

IV-6 FARABI’S HERITAGE

IV-6-1 Essence vs Existence

“Since essence and existence are inseparable for God, there is no distinction between God's being possible (the reality of His essence) and His being actual (the reality of His existence). This means that, if God exists at all, He exists necessarily.

Moreover, God is uncaused and inexplicable.

In order to cause God to exist, one would have to cause His essence to be realized in existence, but this is impossible, since His

essence is inseparable from His existence. Where there is no distinction, there can be no combination, nor any explanation of

how the combination came about.”

 

http://www.leaderu.com/offices/koons/docs/lec3.html

 

IV-6-2 Philosophy vs religion


Could this be an added value of Al-Farabi (the second master after Aristotle)?

"Prophetic Knowledge and Symbols (Chapters 14 and 17)

Essentially, prophecy is the means by which the highest form of knowledge possible, as present in the acquired intellect of a

philosopher, can be represented through imitation to the rest of humanity who could not otherwise understand or attain to it

because their intellects are only potential. This imitation is effective in getting this knowledge (or truth, because it is indisputable)

across because it is based upon the sensibles of the prophet, which are those things he has experienced during his life and

stored in his memory. As such, they can be assumed to be understandable to those around him because they will fall within

the general experience of their social context. Furthermore, these imitations (or ‘symbols of the truth,’ as al-Farabi calls them)

will be combined by the prophet into an overall system of imitations, called a religion (din).

The purpose of this religion shall be to instruct the people in this symbolic truth so that they might live in accordance with it.

This method of imparting actual knowledge through symbols is, however, inferior to how the Active Intellect helps impart the

same to reason.

This is because, in the latter case, the information received is not an imitation, but things in actuality. Thus, it is superior

because it is what it refers to, instead of just something that is like it. As such, philosophy is superior to religion because

it represents knowledge ‘actually’ and,

as a result, and in so far as it is dependent on this actual knowledge, life and death cannot be attained through religion. "

Extract from “A Critical Study of Mabadi’ Ara’ Ahl Madinat al-Fadilah: The Role of Islam in the Philosophy of Abu Nasr al-Farabi:

https://www.academia.edu/1789790/A_Critical_Study_of_Mabadi_Ara_Ahl_Madinat_al-Fadilah_The_Role_

 

Note:


While  working on my essay "Stochastic Model and Worldwide Conflict Resolution" , I am trying to explore/define

what could be the upper level of a scenario? For those who are scientific among you, you may refer to some scenario

examples at the dedicated site:

www.ediaudit.fr


The ultimate scenario could be explored in the following applications:

IV-7 Proposed Scenario for LHC (Large Hadron Collider):


"It will take a lot of time. I don't mean decades, but perhaps years, to verify all the predictions of the Standard Model

about how the particle is produced and how it decays," says Weinberg.

"Except God “infinity” Each essence could be realized in existence" said Al-Farabi. By analogy, my perception is:

"each produced particle could be realized in existence before it decays".

Scenario to predict how the particle is produced and how it decays within the Standard Model :

Higgs boson discovery: now the real work begins

The proposed scenario is composed of a set of predefined messages exchanged between LHC and control stations which pilot its

mission in measurement of Proton-proton collisions according to predictable events like how the particle is made in the LHC

(Large Hadron Collider) and how it disintegrates into other, more familiar particles as soon as it is created.

We propose a new standard to produce a universal engine: SPDF (Standard Process Description Format) to perform

the proposed scenario.

Reminder: SPDF consists of two parts:

a. message structured-data part (including semantics) and,

b. process description part (with higher level of semantics).

Two key outputs of the SPDF research will be a process description specification and framework for the extraction of semantics

from legacy systems.

Note:

a) Automated process runs on a server and doesn’t require human intervention.

b) Number and types of semantic rules are defined according to cumulated knowledge acquired through real experiments

and simulations.

c) The more we may have semantic rules the more predictable and unpredictable events are controlled.

d) The most difficult event is the human factor in the target definition. This kind of unpredictable event may be overcome by adding dedicated semantic rules.

e) Performing dynamically a given scenario is the goal of the proposed messaging system.

Keywords:


virtual learning; virtual tutor; Simulation; universal engine; SPDF (Standard Process Description Format); semantics;

BPEL; WSDL; predictable and unpredictable events; Standard Model; Higgs particles; world business collaboration;

Chaotic triggers; morality; global order.

IV-8 STARTING OCCURRENCE FOR A STOCHASTIC MODEL

Chaotic situations are located in: Middle East (Arab Spring), US (Occupy Wall Street),Europe: France (Red Hat), and last & not the least in Ukrainia with the extreme right large-scale offensive and Russia "contre-offensive".

Chaotic situations  target is to experiment chaotic triggers in producing unexplored semantic rules required by stochastic models to resolve predictable & unpredictable geopolitical conflicts. This is called geopolitical re-education.

IV-9 Proposed Scenario for Geopolitical Re-education

IV-9-1 TANGENTIAL BORDERLINE OF GEOPOLITICAL RE-EDUCATION

None lifts the two dark clouds that hover over all consideration of global order: nuclear war and environmental catastrophe, both literally threatening the decent survival of the species.” Noam Chomsky

 

IV-9-2 TANGENTIAL BORDERLINE BETWEEN FIRST INTELLECT AND DIVINE INTELLECT

The upper level of a scenario (the concept is under exploration by the author) might be the first intellect (see reference 6) for AL-FARABI definition.

Where could be positioned the divine intellect? What could collective intelligence explore beyond the tangential borderline and for which benefit could lead this possible discovery?

 

IV-9-3 REMINDER

SINCE STOCHASTIC MODEL CONVERGENCE IS LARGELY DEPENDANT ON WORLDWIDE CULTURAL HERITAGE,  PRESENT CHAOTIC SITUATIONS ALLOVER THE WORLD MIGHT LEAD TO FALSE CONVERGENCE, HENCE OVERLAP PREDEFINED BORDERLINES.

A Comment by Monica Heintz

It is very synthetic a piece and so ambitious that it is difficult for me who have only a partial view of things to engage in appreciating such an ambitious modelling. It is a model and I have no code to decode it, imagine it, test it. Thus I have understood the prose, especially on Al Farabi (I have also searched for more information about his figure on internet), but was not able to make the links to have a view of the whole. But those are my own limitations. Yours,

Monica2014-04-25

 

A Comment on Monica Heintz Essay

"My second reading of Monica's essay (1), makes me think to a possible debate on "Morality" to resolve some types of conflict using a wider spectrum of perception required to reverse the steam . In information system theory, no datamining may exist without datawarehouse.

It helps us not merely to criticize one group or another, but to understand their interests, actions and thoughts.

A possible debate on "Morality" & how to analyse all the cumulated data about our countries in particular Syria, starting with building hierarchical data structure before analysis is a requirement for modelling. It is only through understanding a given conflict that we can hope to resolve it.

Amin - 2014-05-10

(1)

http://www.mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1506:monica-heintz-studying-morality-in-anthropology&catid=314:learning&Itemid=2034

 

A Comment on « New Tools To Predict Global Mayhem- Using Data to Predict the World’s Next Atrocity » (2)

 

This is an extract from the above article: “Predefining mass violence is yet another frontier. Among these efforts is a 2012 project funded by the Australian government in which a team from the University of Sydney looked at more than a dozen variables that could point to the likelihood of mass atrocities: Had there been political assassinations or coups; were there conflicts in neighboring states; is there a high rate of infant mortality?(Infant mortality turns out to be a powerful predictor of unrest, a signal that state institutions aren’t working.) Using machine-learning tools to draw inferences about the effects of each piece of information, the researches compiled a list of 15 countries facing the highest risk of genocide between 2011 and 2015. The Central African Republic, which had been on no one’s radar at the time, came out at the top. Also on the list were some obvious contenders: Somalia, Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq.”

My comment none of these tools predicted any correlation between types of conflicts like those in Syria, Iraq and Ukrainia. Is it a problem of data mining or data warehouse, or is it a problem of false convergence? Is this related to our misunderstanding of stochastic model behaviour? Obviously learning tools are still yet unable to “draw all possible inferences about the effects of each piece of information”;

 

so this might not be a problem of datawarehouse, possibly this could be a problem of datamining dependant on the datastructure and “What could collective intelligence explore beyond the tangential borderline and for which benefit could lead this possible discovery?” Section IV-10 in this essay shall remain unfinished until we may find an answer to the above question.

 

Amin 2014-05-23

(2) The NYT international weekly 1rst April 2014

 

Message to supporters 29-03 2014


I shared some experiments with few of you, therefore I am dedicating this article to our shared understanding of some events we discussed when we had the opportunity to meet together & to argue about our perception of the future.

I hope that after reading this essay you'll come back to me with your interrogations & comments.

Note

1) Science, art & philosophy are inseparable.

2) I am still working on AL FARABI’S HERITAGE (one of the references of this essay), the correlation is obvious (a dedicated essay is under preparation).

3) Some keywords like "morality" are required to retrieve/consolidate our (or any adopted) identity.

4) this scientific article has no correlation with a specific time or space, it evolves with respect to data it may acquire. It subscribes within a continuous e-learning processus.

UPDATE 14-06-2014: Three  countries in the process of being dismantled

What is happening in IRAK is not a false convergence issue. The stochastic model is mature enough to provide expected results: Dismantling  the arab area is the object of Sykes Picot II: no more multiethnic, multiconfessional and multicultural  entities are authorized: SUDAN has been divided and civil war in the independant new state is a consequence of  dismantling process, IRAK and SYRIA are on the way of division. In east europe UKRAINIA is following the dismantling process. It should be obvious, that civil war shall be the consequence of dismantling process in the three countries: IRAK, SYRIA and UKRAINIA.

Other behavior of the stochastic model are predicted, like no more large entities are authorized. WHY? Reminder: "In information system theory, no datamining may exist without datawarehouse." Nowadys billion of data are cumulated. Only few decision makers are capable to analyse "BIG DATA" and they control entirely the decision process. We are discovering a new learning process called "geopolitical re-education" which is accessible to few profile.

 

UPDATE 28-07-2014:

a) GAZA ultimate development

B'Tselem called for an immediate ceasefire, saying: "Horrific developments in Gaza have reached intolerable heights: Israel is bombing houses with people in them, entire families have been buried under rubble, and streets lie in ruins. Hundreds have been killed so far, dozens in the last 24 hours only, many of them women and children. The number of refugees is rising: tens of thousands of people have nowhere to go and no safe haven."

Ten Israeli human rights organisations have written to the attorney general to raise concerns about grave violations of international law in the conflict. They questioned the legality of Sunday's operation in Shujai'iya, "in particular, the potential violation of the fundamental principles of the laws of war, specifically the principle of distinguishing between combatants and civilians".

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/22/israel-gaza-israeli-soldier-missing-hamas-shujaiiya

 

b) “Can the Islamic State Survive? What Can the US Do?” by Matthias Baun Brubaker Christensen
The geopolitical puzzle:

IS is a result of the turmoil in the region. No state actor wants it to succeed in establishing a state. However, states are using it to advance their geopolitical interests. Saudi Arabia sees the benefit of an IS in order to avoid a long feared Shia Crescent forming from Lebanon to Iran. At the same time, they fear them since the group is a real threat to their own stability. If IS is able to navigate between these fears, and gain temporary allies by recognizing its limits, it is more likely to succeed in its short term mission of holding on to some territory. Here we find a paradox and also a weakness. It mobilizes ideologically on the basis of being uncompromising in its reach. However were it to challenge Jordan, Saudi Arabia and countries beyond, it is likely to quickly be confronted from all sides.

http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/

c) Additional Comments
Again the stochastic model is improving its prediction capabilities: Israel, and arab countries surrounding it are facing irreversible chaotic situations , war in east Ukrainia is going on, all of these apparent perturbations subscribe within the framework of limited war games which are nessary to improve learning tools performance  to “draw all possible inferences about the effects of each piece of information”Using Data to Predict the World’s Next Atrocity » (6)

Bibliography

1. Perspectives de conciliation entre le choc des civilisations et l’ouverture ..

2. Monica Heintz – Studying morality in anthropology: I- What is ‘morality’? II-

3. Sommes - nous à la veille d'une ré-invention appelée "geopolitical re-education "

4. الوجدان العربي من خلال اللغة والهويّة Arab linguistic & identity awareness/La conscience arabe linguistique et identitaire

5. The imperial way: American decline in perspective, part 2 by Noam Chomsky

6. WHAT COULD BE AL-FARABI “founder of Islamic Neoplatonism” ADDED VALUE?   by Amin Elsaleh – current essay

http://www.mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1553:what-could-be-al-farabi-founder-of-islamic-neoplatonism-added-value-part-i-9&catid=358:-al-farabi&Itemid=2095

 

 

Other references

1) Dismantling the Iraqi State, Destroying an Entire Country published 13-10-2011

2) The 'Arab spring' and the west: seven lessons from history published 23-12-2011

3) Les aspects économiques généraux de la relation mandataire France, Syrie et Liban, 1918-1946 par Ali El Saleh published 17-03-2013

4) sykes picot map between vision & reality مخطط "برنارد لويس" لتفتيت العالم العربي published 15-02-2011

5) Avant et après le 1er janvier 2013 : un monde indifférent à l'hiver meurtrier de la Syrie et la géopolitique une science en déclin ou bien sommes - nous à la veille d'une ré-invention appelée "geopolitical re-education " published 20-12-2012

6) The NYT international weekly 1rst April 2014

UPDATE 28-08-2014 : Synchronisation or false convergence

If Israel strikes Iran, it'll be because Obama didn’t stop it

That was published 24 feb. 2012

Few days ago Russia increased her intervention in Ukrainia, USA increased its intervention in Irak against ISIS through its support to Kurds but IRAN who is supporting Syria’s army against the opposition increased its support to the Kurds in IRAK, and the great event was the cease fire in GAZA. All this happened in one week.

One of several conclusions is:

Confrontation between USA & RUSSIA is becoming the critical issue.

What about Middle East cartography? Is it important to investigate about the increasing power of ISIS? It is more important to look at the decreasing power of Saudi Arabia related possibly to ISIS demon virtual creation and giving an increasing role to IRAN to overcome a hypothetical crisis. Should Israel accept the increasing power of IRAN in the Middle East chessboard?

The stochastic model new data doesn’t allow the “false convergence” argument if we admit that the model is improving since 9/11 and the alliance inversion is a long time process.

 

UPDATE 30-09-2014 : Ceteris paribus” or/and Historial manipulation

Before we proceed to analyse the last 72 hrs events within the framework of the stochastic model let us understand what is meant with the Latin term:

Ceteris paribus”: Ceteris paribus or ceterus paribus is a Latin phrase meaning "with other things the same" or "all other things being equal or held constant". A prediction or a statement about a causal, empirical, or logical relation between two states of affairs is ceteris paribus entails an acknowledgement that the prediction, although usually accurate in expected conditions, can fail or the relation can be abolished by intervening factors.[1]

A ceteris paribus assumption is often key to scientific inquiry, as scientists seek to screen out factors that perturb a relation of interest. Thus, epidemiologists seek to control independent variables as factors that may influence dependent variables—the outcomes or effects of interest. Likewise, in scientific modelling, simplifying assumptions permit illustration or elucidation of concepts thought relevant within the sphere of inquiry.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceteris_paribus

In our case “simplifying assumptions “between East Ukrainian, Scotland & Catalonia claims for independence links & those of western coalition against ISIS in Iraq and the decision to arm Al-Qaida in the battle against ISIS; chaotic and uncontrolled situation in Libya; financial instability of major contributors in European economy like France, Italy & Spain & the last & not the least “Ebola” disease in West Africa… the model is too much complex unless:

Present factors to be isolated to solve the model could be:

1. East Ukrainian claim for independence by giving some satisfaction to Russia ambition,

2. The critical control of Scotland claims for independence by postponing for a couple of months the conflict resolution between nationalists and UK government.

Russia seems to accept as a counterpart the proposed US scheme for Iraq temporary stabilizing process which include bombing in Iraq & providing arms to Al-Qaida Syrian branch assuming that they are going to fight against ISIS (Note that both are US creation). As for UN role, it is confined to a strict humanitarian process against “Ebola” disease.

Considering that the globalization process doesn’t allow separation between Western & Middle East conflicts; and using the above definition “scientists seek to screen out factors that perturb a relation of interest” by screening out above factors (1.& 2.) to overcome humanitarian crisis caused by Ebola but excluding the humanitarian crisis caused by the uncontrolled civil war in Libya, Iraq & Syria and its dramatic effect on the exodus of thousands of citizens from these areas and the arms proliferation & their possible export to reach some targets in western countries;

Bring us to non convergence or false convergence of our stochastic model by using “A ceteris paribus assumption”.

We may conclude that the association between “historic manipulation” & the current way of handling a day-by-day explosive issues is more & more geopolitical regression rather than scientific approach to healthy democratic process unless a new chaotic trigger starts a new occurrence to reach better performance of the model (see reminder below).

Reminder: in Section IV-8 STARTING OCCURRENCE FOR A STOCHASTIC MODEL


We defined chaotic situations target to experiment chaotic triggers in producing unexplored semantic rules required by stochastic models to resolve predictable & unpredictable geopolitical conflicts. This is called geopolitical re-education.

To run the model for the nth time to improve its convergence need new chaotic triggers.

One of them is produced by Turkish neutrality against ISIS rewarded by hostage’s liberation at Mosul Turkish consulate,

The 2nd is the coalition statement of the extreme difficulty to cut funds for ISIS survival; these funds started with generous amounts provided by Gulf states enough to strengthen ISIS to enlarge its conquest and to reach its autonomy by selling Oil to Western potential buyers using a low cost schedule,

The 3rd is bombing north & East of Syria. Targets are those of ISIS & those of AL-NOSRA financially supported by GULF states since the start of the civil war in Syria. Few days ago, Western media transmitted to their audience a new discovery: the link between AL QAIDA branch (Al NOSRA) & ISIS,

The 4rth, Russia neutrality against US extensive bombing to north and east of Syria, rewarded by Ukrainian cooperation to resolve Gas cumulated invoices.

NOTE 1: in UPDATE 14-06-2014: “Three countries in the process of being dismantled” we may observe today (three months later) the continuous and refined infrastructure dismantling process of GAZA last war (water pumping, bombing electricity installation; large parts of schools...); and Syria (the last and not the least 24 September 2014 D-day complete destruction of petroleum extraction installations & infrastructure by US. This is to add to Syrian patrimony systematic destruction by foreign thieves started a couple of months ago.

Those Chaotic triggers are a proof of new geopolitical refinement within a more accurate new version of the stochastic convergent model.

 

 

 

Note 2: a) “Si l’Etat et l’armée ont été volontairement brisés pour ne plus menacer, ni Israël ni les alliés américains du Golfe... «  Extract from « Dix ans après la guerre, l’Irak reste un pays sans Etat » by Georges Malbrunot-Le FIGARO jeudi 21 mars 2013 ;

b) “En février, le New York Times révélait que l’Arabie saoudite avait financé l’envoi d’armement croate mais aussi britannique (canons de 60 mm, lance-roquettes) depuis Zagreb vers la Syrie via la Jordanie. Un journal croate précisait que 75 vols auraient transporté 3000 tonnes d’armes et de munitions destinées aux rebelles nationalistes, que l’occident soutient face à Bachar el-Assad, et à leurs rivaux djihadistes et salafistes qui ont le vent en poupe. » Extract from « Amman durcit la confrontation avec Damas » by Georges Malbrunot – Le FIGARO samedi23-dimanche 24 mars 2013 ;

US & its Western allies are applying the same dismantling process to Syria no matter is the present argument. By that time argument was MDA, as for Syria today it is DAECH (the new Demon ).

Note 3: “US shall support military moderate rebellion forces”, statement some days ago. Reminder: this support started in November 2011 with moderate rebellion support (see ref. below) and ended with DAECH today.

 

 

Related references:

· Les Kurdes d'AlJazira entre hier et aujourd'hui par Saleh Darwichأكراد الجزيرة بين الأمس واليوم

· A propos de la non-ingérence américaine dans le conflit Syrien حول خرافة عدم التدخل الأميركي في الصراع السوري .. صحيفة الحياةpar Yassin Al Haj Saleh

· Une intervention préparée par l'OTAN - Canard enchaîné du mercredi 23 novembre 2011

· Complot barbouzard contre Bachar El Assad - Le Canard enchaîné - mercredi 29 février 2012

· 21 j à Damas

 

IV-9-4 How a system is determined probabilistically? Successful Scenario (present and ongoing)

I- 09-10-2010: Aïn Al-Arab (Kobani) partial/or final occupation is a result of a convergent scenario, others of the same type will follow. One of them is a predictable one:

II- DAESH access to Lebanese coast (ongoing process).

III - long duration of two wars apparently disconnected: in Ukrainia and in Lebanon-Syria-Gaza (ongoing process).

IV – US successful involvement in northern Syria. Extracts from the reference below:

http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/clueless-americas-ignorance-middle-east-will-shock-you-1866958275

“Given the US has enormous interests in the Middle East, you would expect your average American to have a good grasp of what the national headlines mean. Especially as the US has invested more treasure, sold more arms, sent more soldiers, lost more lives, and fought more wars than in any other region in the world.”

V- Extract from Robert Fisk : With US-led air strikes on Isis intensifying, it’s a good time to be an arms giant like Lockheed Martin

 

Sunday 19 October 2014

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/with-usled-strikes-on-isis-intensifying-its-a-good-time-to-be-a-shareholder-in-the-merchants-of-death-9804918.html

“Let us leave out here the political cost of this conflict. After all, the war against Isis is breeding Isis. For every dead Isis member, we are creating three of four more. And if Isis really is the “apocalyptic”, “evil”, “end-of-the-world” institution we have been told it is – my words come from the Pentagon and our politicians, of course – then every increase in profits for Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics is creating yet more Isis fighters. So every drone or F/A-18 fighter-bomber we send is the carrier of a virus, every missile an Ebola germ for the future of the world. Think about that. »

In modelling the approach is slight different: Whoever is the beneficiary of this war, the target is dismantling Syria and Lebanon after Iraq. Unfortunately journalists are not aware of this fact and Robert Fisk is one of them. As for experts in geopolitics the subject is strictly reserved to specialised audience. The only unpredictable consequence of this war is: what is the impact of foreign “evils” on their country of origin? Is this new form of “Ebola germ” controllable? In modelling, the approach is economic as well for Ebola germ. The only possible divergence would be: how to reformulate “Morality”?

 

IV-9-5 Moral anaesthesia and political conflicts resolution

By Tikva Honig-Parnass

Introduction

The aim of this article is to pinpoint the explicit and implicit support of the Zionist Left intellectuals usually identified with Labor or Meretz for the brutal attacks on Gaza since 2006. This support is a new stage in the Left intellectuals’ loyalty to the state and its oppressive policies against the Palestinian people. The viciousness of mass murder and horrid devastation of Gaza, chiefly in the recent Operation Protective Edge, have reached unprecedented levels. Their support by the “most enlightened” public figures in Israeli society amounts to total disregard for basic human rights and international lawsand erases any meaningful difference between them and the Right…

… As confirmed by Haaretz senior political commentator:

The enormous power was sent to Gaza not only or even mainly in order to hit the military infrastructure of Hamas. The main mission that the political level assigned to the army was to dismantle the civil infrastructure (emphasis added) of the regime.[ix]

On 30 December, 2008, David Grossman’s “Fight Fire with a Cease-Fire,”

Indeed, all the decision-makers knew in advance that a heavy disaster was imminent in Gaza, says Sternhell:

The army committed precisely the directives it received from their moral leaders, commanders and the government. They [the army] did not seek intentionally to kill civilians. They only bombed, eliminated and leveled everything which seemed necessary for observation, maneuver and advance, since every building could be a combat position for Hamas.[xii]

http://www.palestinechronicle.com/zionist-left-support-for-bloody-assaults-on-gaza-signifies-its-erasure-from-israels-political-map/#.VFPcg1d_6Xw

 

IV-9-6 Moral anaesthesia: High Frequent adjustment and revision With increasing Risk of False Convergence

 

PART I

" And, as you know we've had regular meetings that the President has joined with his national security team on this issue and Syria has been an important subject at those meetings. And I think the President wants to make sure that we're asking hard questions about what we're targeting in Syria, how we're able to degrade ISIL but also how we're supporting opposition and building them up as a counterweight to ISIL but also ultimately of course to the Assad regime."

....

"But with the Free Syrian Army struggling in a two-front battle against al-Assad's forces and extremists from both ISIS and other extremist groups such as al-Nusra, U.S. officials recognize the "Iraq first" strategy is untenable."

...

"Many of the President's top national security advisers, including Secretary of State John Kerry, have long argued that Washington's political strategy was unrealistic."

...

"Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel sent a blunt memo to National Security Adviser Susan Rice in October that a senior U.S. official told CNN's Barbara Starr was "expressing concern about overall Syria strategy" and expressing a fear that the U.S. is risking its gains in the war against ISIS if adjustments are not made. The official said the focus of the memo was the "need to have a sharper view of what do about the Assad regime."

Related: Hagel wrote memo to White House expressing concern about Syria

""It has been pretty clear for some time that supporting the moderate opposition in the hopes of toppling Assad, isn't going to work," another senior official said."

...

"The air campaign so far has infuriated the Syrians fighting the regime. For the first time since the Syrian uprising started in 2011 they are burning American flags because they think we are helping the regime instead of helping them."

Sources: Obama seeks new Syria strategy review to deal with ISIS, al-Assad

By Elise Labott, CNN Global Affairs Correspondent
November 13, 2014 -- Updated 1436 GMT (2236 HKT)
PART II

"Hagel was out of step with the administration on Isis, having urged the White House to clarify its stance on ushering the Syrian dictator, Bashar al-Assad, out of power and bizarrely inflating the threat Isis posed, calling it “an imminent threat to every interest we have” in an August press conference. While the administration has publicly ruled out using US ground forces in combat in Iraq, Hagel and particularly the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, floated precisely that as an option in testimony earlier this month.

A man who never quite found his footing as Pentagon chief, Hagel also testified that the US strategy against Isis – which focuses on Iraq primarily and Syria peripherally – was working, even as it undergoes frequent adjustment and revision.

Yet the strategy has come under criticism from hawks as well as doves. Hawks want a deeper US commitment of air as well as ground forces to beating Isis back, while doves are alarmed at the shifting of US war aims and commensurate resources. The next chairman of the Senate armed services committee, the Arizona Republican John McCain, wants a more forceful US response to Isis and had long fallen out with his former friend Hagel.

In the five months since Isis seized Mosul, Obama has authorized 3,000 new troops to advise and train Iraqis, and expanded an air war into Syria. Pentagon efforts to field a Syrian proxy force have barely begun and are expected to take a year before yielding the first capable units.

Hagel, a Vietnam combat veteran and a noncommissioned army officer, was not expected to be a wartime defense secretary, instead brought in to manage the downsizing of US ground forces and shore up the administration’s at-times uneasy relationship with the military. His Senate confirmation hearing saw the former senator rambling and unfocused; he mischaracterized the administration’s position on Iran. Among Hagel’s more forceful positions early in office was to warn against US involvement in the Syrian civil war."

SOURCES

Chuck Hagel forced to step down as US defense secretary

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/nov/24/chuck-hagel-step-down-us-defence-secretary

25 nov. 2014

 

PART III

Ya'alon hints at Syria strikes: Israel will get to anyone who arms our enemies

11 dec. 2014

Speaking at an event honoring Israel's wounded in war and terror, Ya'alon made an unusually direct reference to the alleged strike, saying that "whoever tries to arm our enemies should know we will reach any place at any time to thwart their plans."

The German news agency DPA reported that the Damascus airport warehouses reportedly targeted by the Israeli air strikes held Iranian missile systems destined for Hezbollah.

A separate strike near Dimas, approximately half-way between Damascus and the Lebanese border, reportedly hit a Hezbollah convoy heading to Lebanon.

Advanced Iranian drones deployed with Syrian troops and Hezbollah forces were also hit, a Syrian official said.

Also on Monday, Russia demanded an explanation from Israel about the alleged strikes. "Moscow is deeply worried by this dangerous development, the circumstances of which demand an explanation," Russian foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said.

Sources

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/1.630776

6 january 2015

Part IV

New trigger towards CHAOS generalization

Slaughter of the innocents at "Charlie Hebdo" is a new challenge and a new trigger. If CHAOS is generalized is this "false convergence" or undiscovered/unpredictable convergence? Rethinking morality is more and more urgent, this might possibly slowdown a certain type of new triggers, unnamed yet.

 

5 january 2015

PART V
New trigger towards Syrian population suffocation process

Hassan Zineddin wrote " Imposing an entry visa for Syrian seeking entry to Lebanon (or taking any steps in this direction) is not once more happening among others... nor is it so unimportant...  What even Cyprus did not dare doing (the Syrians can move freely in the island without a visa since Sykes-Picot till now) is about to become a sad reality ... a trivialization of the logic of the walls in our region ... an extension to those under construction in the southern part of our Bilad Ech'Cham .."

A trigger in modelling is an accelerator, is it towards conflict resolution or towards more dismantling and deterioration? as if the price of millions of syrians soul's wounded, those who are still alive, is not enough? unfortunately models don't handle morality.

 

30 january 2015

PART VI

Continuity

Ukrainian and Syrian wars are evolving towards more casualities and irreversible situations: dismantling process is ongoing. Some remarks might be useful, but don't reverse the wheel, like this one:

"
What happened ten days before (the Golan Heights, Syria) and the response of yesterday (the Shebaa Farms, Lebanon) inaugurates another logic of the Middle East's conflict which replaces that of the "table" that drags since Oslo without any perspective that deserves the name ...
It may be a bit early to say : What is missing is an Israeli as strong and clairvoyant as De Gaulle who understood that the era of colonialism  over... and it is about time for the last settlers (of our contemporary history) to pack their suitcases ..."
The question remains: what is the correlation between Ukrainia and Middle East? New triggers shall soon reactivate the stochastic model and bring us more evidence of lack of geopolitical vision.

Hassan

 

30 january 2015

Clarification: Is there some link between Syrian and Ukrainian wars?

The following extract refers to Hélène Carrère d’Encausse article in “LE FIGARO” 8 february 2015: “When Gorbatchev accepted Germany reunification in 1990, he obtained NatoCommitment not to be positioned near Russia borders, which is no more the case if Ukrainia is integrated within Nato…Why Occident is fighting on two fronts: Ukrainia & Middle-East?
Wouldn’t be most simple to slowdown pressure on Ukrainian folder with commitment not to become closer to Russia borderlines and asking Poutine to commit himself on Syrian and Iranian issues and participate in fighting extremists (new settlers-editor’s note)?”
21 february 2015

Modelling success thanks to recent validation

“If we define our strategy using computer modelling, we may realize that US and IRAN shares many objectives. Same between IRAN and ISRAEL. There’s one problem to solve:
IRAN is an Islamic Republic which sponsors terrorism”. Since 2006 OBAMA was influenced by the Study group on IRAK, Lee Hamilton and James Baker who asked president
Bush to withdraw from IRAK, to concentrate his effort on Afghanistan, to reactivate Israel-Palestine peace process and to open dialog with IRAN and its Partner SYRIA.”(*)
THE NEW TRIGGER: Prime minister Netanyahu is visiting the Congress transgressing diplomatic channel. This might accelerate US and IRAN nuclear deal or this might
Slowdown it, a model does always need triggers to work.
(*) an extract from LE FIGARO newspaper of 21-22 feb. 2015

PART VII

15 May 2015

How many expected dead ends this summer?

Dear Amin

I totally agree about the dead end the Saudis got themselves into in Yemen and they don't know how to get out of it... but the Saudis are not alone in this and this is not new... it's a development of a scene. Qatar and the NEO Ottomans has started much earlier in Syria... the bet against middle east geopolitical status is the mother dead end those "locals" are  stuck into four years non-stop bike riding which cannot stop without risking their fall...

So the one way "trip" in Syria (in which Qalamoon incarnates one product of such geopolitical reality) is their sad fate, even their bosses (in Washington and elsewhere in 5+1 other capitals) who ordered it in the first place are in difficulty remodelling it at least pragmatically... which is precipitating another dead end (the old-new Saudi-Israeli  alliance hinted to by Netanyahu during last Gaza carnage)... which has already precipitated Qatari-French rafale "reward" and "upgraded" Holland  to a first foreign host in GCC summit meeting... which is behind the upcoming Camp David  reaction to such rebellious signals...

That's why not Geneva III nor any place else could help in a game where dead ends are the only outcome... where only the geo will decide who deserve to stay and who will become shameful history

Hassan

Date: Sat, 9 May 2015 16:31:09 +0200
From: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

Subject: between convergence & false convergence

Dear Hassan,

How can we distinguish between convergence or false convergence? Yemen
issue subscribes in the middle of these two approaches: Saudi Arabia and
their allies can't destroy the Houtites, the weakness of their
intervention is that they can't withdraw from the battle; their failure
is deterministic; the Qalamoun battle subscribes within the same
framework. Geneva might not take place because many issues are in
standby position: Ukrainia and Iranian nuclear issues are not going to
be solved quickly. Arabs should change their motivation which should
subscribe within globalization framework, please read the following
analysis of Charif Rifai and come back to me to enhance our joint
analysis:

http://www.mlfcham.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1599:entre-lusure-et-louverture-&catid=273:vision&Itemid=2137



Yours
Amin

 

 

Last Updated on Wednesday, 15 November 2017 08:14
 

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