Stochastic Model and Worldwide Conflict Resolution PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Amin ELSALEH   
Sunday, 12 March 2017 16:16

PREAMBLE

Whoever is the beneficiary of this war, the target is dismantling Syria and Lebanon after Iraq. Unfortunately journalists are not aware of this fact and Robert Fisk is one of them. As for experts in geopolitics the subject is not discussed outside specialised audience.

The only unpredictable consequence of this war is: what is the impact of foreign “evils” on their country of origin? Is this new form of “Ebola germ” controllable? In modelling, the approach is economic as well for Ebola germ. The only possible divergence would be: how to reformulate “Morality”?

LAST ADDED PARAGRAPHS

 

Part: XVII -Speculation and/or Overbid purposes

Before we explore this issue, let us look at a short analysis: “Comparative Conflicts: Ukraine and Syria”

By by Mark N. Katz Published on March 4th, 2015, following are some extracts:

“Both conflicts have certain similarities. One is that Russia is playing an important role in both conflicts. Although it supports the government’s efforts to combat the rebels in Syria, Moscow is supporting the rebels fighting against the government in Ukraine.”

“There is one especially important difference between the two conflicts: while the primary international dimension of the one in Ukraine is Russia versus the West, this is not the case in Syria where the primary international dimension is Iran versus the Sunni Arabs. What this suggests is that if Russia and the West could actually agree to end the fighting in Ukraine, they could each cajole their Ukrainian allies to go along with them. In Syria, however, any agreement between Russia and the West on ending the conflict could have very little impact either on the main regional adversaries involved there (Iran on the one hand and the Gulf Arab states on the other) or on the main local adversaries (the Assad regime on the one hand and IS and the al-Nusra Front on the other)—especially given the apparent marginalization of the moderate Syrian opposition.”

“As bad as the conflict in Ukraine is, then, the one in Syria appears to be the more intractable as well as more likely to spread. Indeed, although the conflict in Ukraine has not spread to the Middle East, the conflict in Syria has already spread into Europe both in the form of the recruitment of young Europeans to join the ranks of IS in Syria and of IS-inspired assassinations in France, Belgium, and Denmark.”

http://www.lobelog.com/comparative-conflicts-ukraine-and-syria/

 

 

PART XVI-SEARCH FOR A TRIGGER based on participative intelligence

Political Instrumentalization of Islam in a Violent State Crisis: The Case of Syria

Published online: 16 Jul 2015

Hakim Khatiba*

pages 341-361

Journal of Applied Security Research

Volume 10Issue 3, 2015

 

Abstract

 

A misconception has emerged in the empirical literature about the nature of the relationship between politics and Islam. It has been assumed that Islam, based on specific features in the Islamic religion and culture, had dominated politics in the Middle East, thus Islamic movements and formations have been responsible for the increase of political use of Islam overlooking the role of the state in pushing religion into the political domain. This article attempts to analyze the reasons of why political instrumentalization of Islam increases in the Syrian violent conflict showing that the prominence of Islamic rhetoric does not owe to specific features of the Islamic religion and culture but rather to the exploitation of religion in mobilization, contestation, and outbidding processes. Politics dominate religion in the Syrian conflict. Political instrumentalization of Islam is more likely to remain on the rise in the Syrian violent crisis causing serious implications on peace building and leading to a political vicious cycle that increases radicalization, deepens division, and hampers political development toward political reconciliation. The state instrumentalized religion from the early days of the uprising. Insurgent formations have become fragmented based on Islamic interpretations. Foreignism and interventionism contributed to the prominence of religion.

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19361610.2015.1038769#.Vcx-FLXiyCk

1038769#.Vcx-FLXiyCk

 

PART XV - No more false convergence

Wednesday 5 august 2015

Yes, It Is Islamic Extremism—But Why?

“…there are a dozen good reasons why there is bad blood between the West and the Middle East today, without any reference to Islam or to religion.

 

…Most of these reasons are well known: the Crusades (a western economic, social and geopolitical adventure), imperialism, colonialism, western control of Middle Eastern energy resources, imposition of pro-western dictatorships, endless western political and military interventions, redrawing borders, western creation of the state of Israel, US invasions and wars, biased US policies over decades towards the Palestinian issue, etc., etc. None of this relates to Islam.

…ISIS is through and through a self-proclaimed Islamist movement. In many senses it represents established Wahhabi theology in its rigid, ahistorical interpretations of Islam. But it adds savage, capricious, sweeping and often distorted religious justification for its violence;

…Let’s not forget one Arab leader’s comment to an American: “Your 9/11 is our 24/7.”

…So it’s not about blaming the West, or blaming Islam. It’s about identifying the sources of violence—on all sides—that brought us to where we are today. The West has much to answer for. And here too it is important for Muslims to contemplate what further actions they need to take on their side under these desperate conditions to help overcome this impasse, including drawing on the contributions of Muslims in the West. Only then can West and East identify the paths that will slowly begin to lead us out of this mess we have all landed ourselves in.

http://grahamefuller.com/yes-it-is-islamic-extremism-but-why/

 

PART XII

Now the truth emerges: how the US fuelled the rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq

Seumas Milne

Wednesday 3 June 2015

The sectarian terror group won’t be defeated by the western states that incubated it in the first place

 

 

"In reality, US and western policy in the conflagration that is now the Middle East is in the classic mould of imperial divide-and-rule. American forces bomb one set of rebels while backing another in Syria, and mount what are effectively joint military operations with Iran against Isis in Iraq while supporting Saudi Arabia’s military campaign against Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen. However confused US policy may often be, a weak, partitioned Iraq and Syria fit such an approach perfectly.

What’s clear is that Isis and its monstrosities won’t be defeated by the same powers that brought it to Iraq and Syria in the first place, or whose open and covert war-making has fostered it in the years since. Endless western military interventions in the Middle East have brought only destruction and division. It’s the people of the region who can cure this disease – not those who incubated the virus.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/03/us-isis-syria-iraq

 

http://www.mlfcham.com/v1/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1599:entre-lusure-et-louverture-&catid=273:vision&Itemid=2137

LEARNING BY DOING APPROACH

 

Learning by doing signifies that “players” should generate a content which contribute to control current simulation objectives.

In the “learn by doing” world of serious games, learners are frequently called upon to “do” things those results in the generation

of content.

In fact, learner generated content will be recognized as one of the principle design mechanisms for learners to demonstrate mastery of a game’s learning objectives. What tools will learners use? What standards will apply? What new learning approaches may or may not result as a function of this technical capability? Proposed modelling corresponds to the request:

Handling human social-technical dimension; in particular man-system interface including positioning technology at man services


Simulation is used to trigger iterative interactions and create required environment for virtual learning.

Many objectives should be targeted:

1. Engine should trace “player” behaviour, evaluate its capabilities and quickly meet its needs.


2. Immersion generated by simulation enables training and experimentation of behaviour strategies, in particular learning “by doing”.

Engine should use following resources:

a) Tools to be customized by trainers.

b) Applied standards.

c) New learning approaches discovery through obtained results, whether these approaches are positive or negative, in the sense

of improving technology performance of assembled prototypes.

How SPDF (Standard Process Description Format) may produce a universal engine to run the stochastic model?


SPDF consists of two parts:

a. message structured-data part (including semantics) and,

b. process description part (with higher level of semantics).

Two key outputs of the SPDF research will be a process description specification and framework for the extraction ofsemantics

from legacy systems.

Note that:

1. The more we may have semantic rules the more unpredictable events are controlled.

2. Acquired knowledge to elaborate semantic rules for unpredictable events requires many occurrences of the stochastic model.

3. Convergence shall not be reached until getting more qualitative semantic rules.

4. Performing dynamically a given scenario is the goal of the proposed messaging system.

VALIDATION

1 TARGET

Use the power of information to: explore social and economic life on Earth and discover options for a sustainable future.

2 HOW?

Use Iterative approach to reach convergence and resolution.

3 WEAKNESS

To reach False Convergence, instead of: Convergence.

4 RECOMMENDATION


• Use successive approach mechanism with procedure by elimination.

• Associate “Learning by doing” approach with an Engine to: trace “player” behaviour, evaluate its capabilities and quickly meet its needs.

• Build a “Knowledge Accelerator” with that Engine to handle large volume of accessible data for each conflict and run large number of iterations to reach convergence of the stochastic model.

5 SUCCESS KEY FACTOR

Keywords:


virtual learning; virtual tutor; Simulation; universal engine; SPDF (Standard Process Description Format); semantics;

BPEL; WSDL; predictable and unpredictable events; Standard Model; Higgs particles; world business collaboration;

Chaotic triggers; morality; global order.

STARTING OCCURRENCE FOR A STOCHASTIC MODEL

Chaotic situations are located in: Middle East (Arab Spring), US (Occupy Wall Street),Europe: France (Red Hat), and last & not the least in Ukrainia with the extreme right large-scale offensive and Russia "contre-offensive".

Chaotic situations  target is to experiment chaotic triggers in producing unexplored semantic rules required by stochastic models to resolve predictable & unpredictable geopolitical conflicts. This is called geopolitical re-education.

 

Last Updated on Tuesday, 14 March 2017 09:08
 

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