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Beyond Sykes-Picot CAN ARMAGEDDON BE STOPPED? by Imad F Abdullah PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Imad Abdullah   
Wednesday, 01 May 2019 08:28

 

 

I- Ending Armageddon Forever: A New Vision for Peace between Israelis and Palestinians

By: Imad F. Abdullah
Author of “A Crystal Ball Visioning, Unfolding The 21st Century”

Foresighted vision can offer solutions that would initially appear totally unexpected and impossible to implement but this approach merits serious consideration by all parties as it carries the seeds for a realistic solution toward a permanent and lasting peace.

It takes bold moves to make a leap into a future that carries the promise of vastly improved conditions for all. It also requires a critical and serious dialogue with as much of an open mind as the conflict over 75 years has tried to prevent

Though issues may appear intractable for Israel such as the question of refugees and the right of return, the solution lies in how we build cities and provide employment with new economies, and how we design for present day densities to build very successful cities such as Singapore and New York.

Israel has always looked at its geography from a perspective of land area versus population, a view which locked its leaders into a mindset of “keeping the rest of them out”. It is time for Israel and the world to reconsider and adopt the model of dense and successful cities which is where the solution lies.

Can The Deal of the Century Downside be turned to an Upside?

Within the Deal of the Century proposed by President Trump are parameters that open the door for this new perspective including the Two State Solution, Citizenship and Freedom for Palestinians within their country, Security for all sides, acknowledgement for the need to compensate and to create opportunities with new infrastructure and institutions that has long been lagging. Connectivity and freedom of movement are incorporated but under heavy security

The plan also carries within demands by Israel for long periods before implementation to prove Palestinian compliance subject to Israel’s approval. It also incorporates to Israel lands that have always been defined by the UN as Palestinian and negates the Right of Return and compensation to the Palestinian Diaspora.

The total rejection by the Palestinians was expected for what they considered one-sided terms, and it also reflects their heavy doubts due to the low compliance record of Israel over the years as it bypassed many UN Resolutions and The Oslo Agreement, holding confidence that present promises will be done rather than using the time by Israel to create more facts on the ground.

The rejection will maintain the conflict for the foreseeable future with destructive wars and retributions, increased terrorism which can spread worldwide, more fanaticism, and the permanent confrontation between Israel and neighboring countries as all continue to build their own armaments for a mutual and destructive balance of power.

Israelis and Palestinians need to consider how to stop this dark outcome for upcoming generations and to change the course to a bright future. For Israel, it will not have to live in fear of future wars which will be super destructive with cyber-attacks, chemical, biological and other yet undiscovered warfare by the next generation of dispossessed Palestinians. The timing of the announcement reflects Israel’s realization of what such a future can hold and how soon it could happen, and the need to look at peace as a solution. The terms demanded reflect deep concerns and fears and prevented acceptance of by Palestinians

A Visionary Plan with Two Sovereign States

 

The following is a New Vision that offers a realistic approach for all the parties and the big powers and the UN to consider, and it can be implemented within a reasonably realistic time frame since it offers much more acceptance and an invitation for cooperation towards a bright and promising future.

The Plan involves a narrow land concession by Israel to form a buffer zone, whereby Israel gives up a strip in the north starting at The Mediterranean Sea and all along the border with Lebanon and the historic Syrian border west of The Golan Heights, with a width between two to ten miles (3 to 16 kilometers) inside Israel, and with a corridor connecting the zone with the West Bank at specific points on the northern line of the 1948 UN armistice plan.

The new Palestine will be The West Bank connected with the northern strip along the borders of Lebanon and Syria, and including Gaza through a secured corridor.

This northern strip is to be developed into highly dense linear cities with high rise buildings for residents and employment centers and services, and to be populated by Palestinian refugees who choose to return and live there. It will have major transportation corridors and will be interconnected with smaller towns to become a permanent buffer zone for the security of Israel.

The new cities will follow the example of highly successful cities worldwide where talent and capital and technology are concentrated at very high densities within such as Hong Kong which is less than two miles wide on either side for most of the sea channel. Today Gaza has very high densities and nearly two million living in a five mile wide stretch along The Mediterranean.

This northern zone of Israel has already served as a large buffer with Lebanon and Syria with the major population centers of Israel to the South between Haifa to Gaza. It is extremely vulnerable to modern warfare and the residents frequently go to shelters or evacuate, making what constitutes “Security” for Israel questionable when it cannot protect them well without the “mutual destruction” threat. The buffer when populated by Palestinians is the ideal security for Israel and the solution to its permanent state of war readiness which saps the talent and productive energy of its citizens

As Israel has been quite crafty in configuring the proposed Palestinian State in the Trump Plan, it can apply the same principles to weave the buffer dividing line by mutual agreement and through open lands to have Israel and Palestine intertwined at times but reasonably separate. Israelis in this northern part and their institutions and other installations will be in Israel and they would benefit from proximity to the new population and can conceivably have permanent residency within Palestine if they choose. Palestinians inside can choose to relocate to this new zone to benefit from the coming boom.

The major population centers of Israel will have an overwhelming Jewish majority and Israel will be inwardly secured in its Jewishness. It will not need others to recognize it as such and will have no fear of Palestinians inside gaining control.

Each state can be totally independent with its own institutions and governments, and relations will be according to international laws and agreements. Palestine will have a portion of the Sinai around Gaza (similar to Trump’s Plan) with Gaza becoming a major port, and Palestine will coordinate with Israel and Jordan for access to their ports on the Red Sea.

Borders and Security

The anticipated dense high-rise buildings will act as a new barrier between countries and will forestall any future war. Israel thereafter will have no borders with Syria or Lebanon except along portions of Tiberias. Security will be permanent with Palestine as a buffer and international border will be secured by Multi-national forces.

As Israel long term security is assured, The Golan Heights can be returned to Syria to end the state of war, and the return of refugees from Lebanon diffuses the conflict with that country.

Benefits

Land given back by Israel constitutes a onetime concession for the sake of peace. Permanent peace and security will be guaranteed by world powers. Israelis will live normal lives knowing peace is achieved

Diaspora Palestinian refugees can return to Palestine with no threat to Israel. Those in Lebanon and Syria and Jordan and other countries can return to northern Palestine and the new cities there or to relatives in The West Bank and Gaza if they choose, and at the same time they would be offered an option to resettle in any other part of the world with the assistance of the UN to rejoin diaspora families and receive lump sum compensations.

The countries hosting refugees now will experience long term stability and security thereafter, and some may find it beneficial to offer resettlement to some to gain productive human capital.

There will be no further claims on Israel from Palestinians, and no further claims on Palestine from Israelis as each will compensate its dispossessed subjects independently

Logistics

Private institutions and corporations can stay and operate in both entities, relocation will be by choice and crossings between both states subject to normal customs. Access to the Holy places and Jerusalem is to be guaranteed by international powers, and visas and border crossings with Jordan and Egypt to be monitored by these countries. Borders of Lebanon and Syria can be monitored by multinational forces until cities are built and permanency achieved

Transportation corridors will connect parts of the same country when separated by the other country much like Trump’s plan. Israeli Settlements in Palestine can choose to stay as residents of Palestine and same with Palestinians in Israel. In time a market for private real estate exchange can take place for residents wishing to transfer

Summary

Palestine could adopt becoming a country of three states: Northern Palestine, The West Bank, and South Palestine including Gaza. They could emulate systems such as the relation in the US between its fifty states or other suitable systems in different democratic countries. As such political power and leadership will be subject to elections and people's vote. The New Palestine will work out how Palestinians everywhere get a fair share to give full support to the plan

Private capital will flow back and the whole region will prosper, and much of the fifty billion dollars offered in the Trump Deal becomes an investment especially as currently half of that amount is subsidized loans.

Countries such as Iran and Syria who are now adversaries of Israel will no longer have a reason to be adversaries. Peace will come with Syria once the Golan Heights are returned, and Iran will no longer need to think of building a nuclear bomb.

Israelis will have to come terms with the current modern Law principles of separation of Religion and State (Church and State as known in the US). Their claim based on the Historical 2000 years ago and for Greater Israel does not hold legal validity since many residents of the area and including some Arab tribes would have been Jews before the arrival of Christianity. Conversion occurred after Christianity and Islam but this does not negate the same historical rights for Arabs under this theory. “Arabia” has been defined geographically by Greek cartographers well before 400 BC as encompassing the whole region as it is known today and its people had various pagan beliefs and religions including Judaism for some.

Israel over the years has chipped at public lands within the 1948 framework and properties with unregistered owners. Ownership of such lands belongs to the state of Palestine much like the USA owning public lands in most of its states, and until such time that teams are formed in Palestine to assemble land ownership and find the original owners and heirs

Israel’s best security long term is for a stable and viable Palestine for mutual protection with International monitoring and support. Security was never achieved by oppression or domination and Israel knows it too well as it continuously faces the thousands of youth along the Gaza border and elsewhere who are willing to take bullets for their demands, and as the potential for a new Intifada looms on the horizon which can paralyze many economic sectors.

Though this approach looks radical, long term security comes from a shared peaceful future and an investment in the viability and stability of countries that have to coexist. There will be many substantive issues to be worked out such as well-defined obligations of all parties with international guarantees, water and natural resources distribution, security cooperation and other issues that both parties have had to deal with over the years. There are already existing frameworks and the parties should strive to implement workable solutions especially as none of the issues thereafter constitutes an existential threat.

Many in Israel who would find it inconceivable that they will tie their security directly to Palestine can rest assured that their country will continue to be a very strong regional military power and will always remain as such, and can overwhelm any action outside the security agreed upon. Israel has been reasonably peaceful internally for several years with over 1,8 million Palestinians (20% of population) living within, proof that shared coexistence can work well

Israel can advance peace by adopting the futuristic mindset that supports and welcomes these dense new cities along its northern border and in Gaza, and even along the Jordan River near the main bridge crossings with Jordan. Massive construction projects will take place including within Israel to fill the demands of fast-growing developments.

This concept of highly dense cities, whether “La Defense” in Paris, “The London Yards” or “the Singapore Miracle” has already created “a new world order” that produced advancement for all societies that implemented it. This is how civilization flourished exponentially as densities and the critical mass synergy produced new science and creativity and modern lifestyles. Israel is well positioned to capitalize on the benefits that peace and the new human potential offers and the consumption that needs to be satisfied.

As with any new approach, there will be doubters and those who look for the holes rather than try to achieve the whole. It takes astute leaders with historic perspectives and keen analysis of future expectations to carry such a bold plan. If an “Armageddon” takes place in the future History will be the harshest critic and future generations will never forgive their elders of today

By: Imad F. Abdullah, Architect AIA
Author of “A Crystal Ball Visioning, Unfolding The 21st Century”

February 5, 2020

II - WHERE TO STOCHASTICS?

By Imad F Abdullah

Author of "A Crystal Ball Visioning, Unfolding the 21st Century"

January 7, 2020

The world is on edge awaiting the outcome of the Iran – USA face-off. Some suggest a major showdown of epic proportions following the funeral marches of millions in Iran, and others anticipate a less public confrontation considering the imbalance of power between the two countries.

The US moved substantial military might to the region including B-52 Bombers to their base in the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a clear message that any confrontation will result in massive escalation.

Though many may question the timing of the killing of Major Soleimani, it is not difficult to compare it to the timing of the attack on Saddam and follow-up Iraq invasion which was heavily related to attempts of Saddam to sell oil with currencies outside the Dollar just as Iran has been planning for a good while.

One would have to assume a lot of US follow-up planning is in place pending the reaction of Iran as the Deep State in the US may have concluded that this is an opportune time to set back the Nuclear Progress of Iran by several years into the future via massive military means at a time they consider Iran much weaker today and unable to inflict an unbearable level of harm. The Deep State is also emboldened by the fact that the reactions in the past to US positions on Jerusalem and on Israeli settlements have been quite timid all over the world.

Assumptions would be that the main damage will be to US allies who are not as ready to protect themselves, and the outcome will justify the severity of anticipated damages on the premise that it would be less now than after some years when Iran becomes Nuclear.  Ironically the reconstruction of several countries after the Iraq war was beneficial to many entities.

It is well to accept that US policy is planned for many years and decades in advance, and it is not that much affected by who is the president but by the timing of events on the historical scale. Presidents execute, and though it may be President Trump this time, past presidents have executed with precise timing ever since World War 2.

We are in unpredictable times and tempers are quite high. The "where to" scenarios could invite very dark times and possibly a Doomsday on the horizon. One would hope the rest of the world powers will interfere enough to stem the tide and reverse the slide to the "Nowhere" as nowhere could be the ending for many innocents trapped within this generational cycle of attempts at dominance and the ensuing world powers continuous confrontation.

III - WHERE MODELING DO NOT FAIL

REMINDER

"In probability theory, a purely stochastic system is one whose state is non-deterministic (i.e., "random") so that the subsequent state of the system is determined probabilistically. Any system or process that must be analyzed using probability theory is stochastic at least in part.[1][2] Stochastic systems and processes play a fundamental role in mathematical models of phenomena in many fields of science, engineering, and economics.”

Our previous works since 1973 are based on the role of TRIGGERS to accelerate convergence, or to avoid false convergence; we succeeded in establishing strong link between war in UKRAINIA and war in SYRIA. With SOLEIMANI elimination, the link is extended to US-IRAN war; unless US rebuild their strategy and stop threatening IRAN considering that IRAN is military so weak wrt the huge US army. But IRAN has got strong allies, Does Mr. TRUMP underestimating a new form of alliance which is becoming stronger day after day. Editor’s note 06/01/2020 and[1]

PRESIDENT TRUMP TWEET:

To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!

Iran deal

Sunday’s tweet from Trump to Rouhani was considered political bluster when just two days later the U.S. leader said he was “ready to make a real deal” with Iran.

But the two leaders have been at odds ever since Trump announced that he would withdraw the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The JCPOA is another name for the Iran nuclear deal in which the Islamic republic was asked to stop enriching uranium in exchange for a lifting of economic sanctions.

Source :

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/27/iranian-commander-soleimani-to-trump-if-you-begin-the-war-we-will-e.html

IV - Iran and the US: can Armageddon be stopped?

By Imad F Abdullah

Author of "A Crystal Ball Visioning, Unfolding the 21st Century"

January 4, 2020

Much has been discussed about Iran's options in response to the killing of Major Soleimani.

In the opinion of this writer, any vengeful reaction whether to assets or to entities will not produce the necessary change in context that the situation demands; however, there is one option that stands a chance to diffuse the heat of the moment and create a time margin that allows a way out of this impasse.

Considering that the incident occurred near the Baghdad Airport and the potential breach of its security, Iran could arrange with Iraqi authorities to round-up all personnel and entities in charge of the airport security and in due course potential collaborators with any foreign military planes flying over the airport in the last days before the attack on Soleimani.

All accused detainees can be placed on trial in a public forum and with punishment corresponding to their particular crime when proven. The accused would have legal representation of their choice and the proceedings will be open to the world.

Iran as a state will have shown maximum restraint and yet acted responsibly and without a "Tit for tat" approach. If there are US Servicemen or contractors among the detained, the impact will be substantial on the future of the Trump presidency and yet the shadow of war will be removed.

This approach allows Iran the clout to reopen the discussions on the imposed sanctions in due course as a quid pro quo if there are "guilty as charged" parties among the detained.

At the same time and as Iran watches the relationship between N Korea and the US, Iran is very cognizant of the leverage obtained by nuclear capabilities. Buying time while diffusing the situation of a destructive confrontation would be very high on Iran's priorities.

The shadow of the Hostage Crisis in 1979 and its impact on the future of Carter Presidency looms large. Will history repeat itself?

V - How Soon Armageddon[2], and who will initiate the first strike in The Middle East to redefine The New World Order?

November 30, 2019

Events are moving at a fast pace all around the Middle East and the maps are in a state of

flux with every incursion from whichever power or faction that wants a landing in a land

where so many have laid claim over millennia and tried to capture and to hold on it

against the will of its native original owners.

Centuries are compressed to decades and at times to only few years nowadays,

and the claim to ownership is for whoever has an upper hand for the moment

in hopes of permanency and ultimate recognition.

History has not been kind to any occupier, whether England over an emerging

United States or Spain over native Latin Americans. The wounds remain deep

over many centuries and though the US and Britain are now close allies, a

wide divide remains between Spain and Latin and South America as time did

not heal the pain nor forgive the theft of much gold and riches

The Middle East and North Africa today are in the eye of this centurial hurricane,

the tigers of history roaming around and some barbarians are still pounding at

the gate.

In a world awash with oil and with it in that area too abundant to produce

all at once,

Iran and Iraq are trying to maximize their share, and Syria is attempting to prevent

others from siphoning and selling its share. Turkey is juggling high stakes balls

trying to maintain NATO relations and to keep Russia’s S400 missiles. It wants to

fend off Kurdish aspirations while relocating millions of Syrian refugees to newly

captured territory along the Syrian border to create a would-be buffer zone,

all the while courting President Trump and aiming to keep relations flowing

with Iran. Spectators are confused most of the time and few are amused

considering the tragedies all around.

Some stability found its way to Tunisia and Egypt, and luckily for Algeria and Jordan

the wave of upheavals seems to have passed by at least for now. To compound

the spectacle, rumors around suggest substantial rare earth metals in Syria

lending speculation on why the US insists on remaining in Syria and why France

and Britain continue the quest for a semblance of a newer “Sikes – Picot”

that preserves future benefits.

Facing elections next year, President Trump is eager to get re-elected, if

only to protect the legacy he created and to prevent a newer and more

aggressive Obama style legacy from resurging Democrats. He has been

doling out favors to Israel regardless of established international agreements

and increasing sanctions on its arch-enemy Iran, counting on Israel to deliver

a much-needed portion of the Jewish Vote and favorable media reporting.

In this volatile Powder Keg, who will initiate the first strike, when and where?

To win wars the concepts of “First Strike” and the “Element of Surprise” are

very prized among Generals and they constantly evaluate the “when” and

“how powerful the hit”. The biggest danger to this concept is the Generals

of the enemy as they are doing the same calculations. In past wars, Israel

prevailed in the 1967 war due to its surprise attack on Egypt’s Air Force,

only thereafter for Egypt and Syria to achieve substantial early advances

with the surprise Yom Kippur 1973 war.

Whether it is the Pearl Harbor outcome after the attack by Japanese

Kamikaze pilots or the “D Day” landing in WW2, the First Strike concept is

much on everyone’s mind, and with such tight quarters between opposing

forces and the short distances between the major centers of Lebanon and

Israel, the region is very much on edge.

For quite some time now, Lebanon has been dodging the bullet with its

policy of non-interference and non-involvement, and there was opposition

among some factions against a détente with Syria. With the heavy sanctions

on Syria, Lebanon has become its gateway and benefits from a large influx of

visiting Syrians living abroad coming to visit the homeland. Still it has imposed

tight visa requirements on incoming Syrians and Iraqis. This has resulted in less

import and export with periodically blocked borders.

Over long periods, there was a large influx of Dollars from older migrant

generations who sent substantial sums to Lebanon. Nowadays the new

generations may not have the same feelings for an ancestral homeland nor

the extended time to spend weeks or months there. They do not need to

have a “pied-a-terre” or buy a place as they can stay in hotels or with relatives.

This reduces demand on real estate and reduces the influx of foreign currencies.

The National Debt has been piling up and the recent demonstrations decry so

much corruption. Blocking streets paralyses everyone and results are drastic

tensions and a potential explosive situation. The people are already suffering

from shortages in electricity and pay some of highest cell phone rates anywhere,

and prices of drugs are astronomical when available since there is a real

shortage of Dollars to import international goods. The Lebanese Lira is practically

floating and the Street determines its value on a day to day need.

More powder is simmering with the presence of many Syrian refugees who

have been in Lebanon nearly 8 years and are not certain to return to what in Syria.

In addition, there are the hundreds of thousands of 1948 refugees from

Palestine who are still living in camps for over 70 years.

As normally happens in such conditions, the Wealthy and the Ruling Class

already anticipate events and move considerable personal wealth to foreign

stable countries. The drain has been substantial on the Central Bank and

particularly as Syria taps whatever Dollar sources are available to it in Lebanon

for its own foreign currency needs

Lebanon religious factions have specific territorial geography that they control

and prevent others from getting to it by blocking certain access roads. As such,

trade and commerce are always hostage to political events, and people are

unable to always have access to work opportunities across such divides.

This limits income and results in many seeking to leave Lebanon for job opportunities

Lebanon is practically an island in a turbulent region and at times contributes

to the turbulence. This has had drastic consequences and continues to impact

the country as several factions oppose a rapprochement with Syria, Lebanon’s

main roadway to the rest of the Arab world and money flow from the Gulf

countries is drying out. Can President Trump pressure them for a bail out and

how long would it last? Would some of the inflow get siphoned by corrupt

operatives which already built over 80 billion in foreign debt?

Can the country survive a financial meltdown? Many countries experienced

this including Argentina, Germany and Lebanon in 1983.

The situation is very volatile, and demonstrators could turn to violence with

targeted incitement. History is also full of examples of what is likely to occur

when the civil disobedience spirit or revolution take hold: the French revolution

consumed many of its leaders, and Mussolini was executed by his own people.

Libya and Iraq are living examples of countries living in hell now and under

practically the Law of the jungle.

In summary, it is difficult to foresee the outcome now considering the numerous

factors at play but we can highlight some questions and possibilities:

The current ruling class benefiting from the last 40 years will not give up easily

and this could result in worse conditions to force the population into submission

Will France and England and the US intervene to protect the status quo which

served them since Lebanon’s independence

Can a new government be formed? Can technocrats govern without the might

of tribal and religious backing that the last elected members relied on?

Will Lebanon request the UN to take over and administer it and will anyone accept the responsibility of a Lebanon on the rocks?

Will Lebanon divide along its religious tribal political lines? Would this approach

concentrate Hezbollah within its defined enclaves and will it be targeted then?

Whether he party gets attacked or not, it would still remain at 30 to 35% of

the population and will not go away.

In order to achieve such a goal, Israel may decide to create a pretext before

starting a surprise attack, and though the opposition is usually weighing their

responses not to provoke too much counter attacks, measured response as

it is labeled, a response on the level of major first strike could ignite the whole

region and no winners will emerge.

Israel may want to consider how to secure the future while it is in a strong

position to have favorable agreements. So far it has not defined its borders and

it may be time to do so. It may be time to bet on peace, and begin to remove the

hundreds of thousands of land mines separating Lebanon from Israel, and to start

a worldwide campaign of compensation for the victims of war from all parties.

If not now, there is a very large young generation and their children who will be

battling Israel for the next two generations and nobody knows what will be the

armaments of the future. In this scenario, there will be no need for

another Sikes Picot

VI - Could there be “A New World Order”

and would it work this time?

April 30, 2019

Beyond Sykes-Pico after WW1 and the International Treaties following

WW2 which set the course of the last century, the New World Order

before our eyes now has been to divide, to Parcel-out, and to instill

hegemony on such parcels rather than total subjugation. Watching recent

events one can easily come to this conclusion.

Let’s start with Libya: Every day now the situation gets more dire and Libya

can easily be split to two countries, each having its own port (Tripoli or

Benghazi). With the current offensive. Libyan banks are accumulating huge

debt making the country totally vulnerable to lenders in addition to warring sides

Yemen is so bloodied that a peaceful reunification seems years away.

Two separate countries seem to be the intended outcome, and

unfortunately it has taken a disastrous toll on its people

Lebanon could be on the verge of a divide across its land starting around

Sidon and running East to the Syrian Border. The area south of the divide

up to Israel’s northern border can expect a vicious war intended to root

out Hezbollah fighters without heavily impacting Beirut or the North.

Hezbollah is no match for Israeli American English French power and

Iran may be helpless to assist with all the air and land routes controlled

by the US military

The current embargo and sanctions imposed on Syria will cause

substantial deterioration in military capabilities that reduces the effect

of its support for Lebanese factions siding with it. Syria’s Eastern

Provinces where the oil is plentiful are occupied by outside powers,

and splitting the country at least in the near term may be the end result.

The situation in the NW area of Idlib could result in another permanent

division absent the will to have it reunified with Syria since nobody

knows what to do with the hardened foreign fighters there

Iraq is practically divided into spheres of power and with a

constitution that prevents the formation of a very large military power.

A homeland for the Kurds that gets carved out of Iraq, Syria and Turkey is

constantly debated and may be awaiting the right strategic timing

Turkey is jockeying and straddling whenever and wherever it can to prevent

the loss of its Eastern third to a Kurdish Nation

Sudan is already finished, the two countries now working to see where

interests meet to solve regional water and population migration issues

Venezuela is in the eye of the storm; a split is looming on the horizon

and the country is in a severe economic and financial crisis. It will take

years to normalize whether the government is changed or not

The United Kingdom may not remain united with BREXIT looming.

Since the military power and Deep State are in England, the split

will not impact England’s perennial intent at maintaining it power internationally

Spain faced its divide with Catalonia and the situation remains quite fluid.

Tunisia was let go, being a small player with limited resources. Algeria

remains a target with their large oil deposits

Egypt almost got divided with the Arab Spring and remains for now in a

precarious state relying on Saudi and UAE financial support. It’s one hundred

million population without reasonable prosperity is a powder keg simmering

all the time

It is interesting to note that this approach follows past divisions of

Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union, and in a much earlier age North Korea

from South Korea

Along the whole spectrum, there is much oil in most of these areas and

controlling how much is produced or preventing its production allows

world prices to remain stable and under control, a necessary need for

industrial nations. Control of oil gives negotiating power when dealing

with competing powers and is a means to achieve economic objectives

Rare Metals are also found in many of these troubled regions.

They are quite scarce now and world powers are vying for control of

these resources wherever they are with China making inroads worldwide

This New Order started long ago but much was accomplished recently

and practically during the last twenty years. The Deep States are

the constant element guiding decisions and all leaders operate within this web

What about other super-powers and the super-dormant ones?

Though quite large, Brazil has much to do to reach military parity let

alone some superiority. It needs somewhat of an economic miracle to

achieve more cohesion and provide a brighter future for its people.

Russia, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Iran and Japan present

formidable challenges and especially for the current US administration

although Japan is within its sphere of influence.

North Korea operates under the umbrellas of Russia and China and as

such can be left for another time.

Considering that India and Pakistan neutralize each other on the

world scene, Iran could be deemed vulnerable and targeted. Iran is more

of a monolithic entity similar to Japan rather than a country with too

much diversity. There are different and diverse populations but their size

fades compared to the large block of nationalistic Iranian Shia sect which

has been in control since 1978.

Whoever is elected president in 2020 will be tasked to address one of

these challenges, maybe more depending on the outcome of the simmering

situation in Lebanon. The likelihood of war is reduced as we get close

to the US presidential elections although this is by no means a given

certainty especially if a lightning strike limited to South Lebanon takes effect.

Given this possibility, the magnitude of its outcome cannot be

underestimated especially if the roles of Syria and Iran are marginalized

and assuming the strike neutralizes the local Shia militias and their

supporters. Consider the following scenarios and possibilities:

What happens if South Lebanon becomes the future home of Syrian

refugees currently in Lebanon and Jordan unwilling to return to Syria since

many have lost their homes, some oppose the regime, and those 18 or

over would be drafted into the Syrian Military Service? Will this

influx by mainly “Sunnis” neutralize the future threat from the “Shias”

and stave off the long-term threat to Israel from the North and will

this reshuffling create a permanent change toward a Sunni State? Will

other Lebanese religious factions embrace the change or is there another

Civil War in the making?

Could it also become the home of a new wave of Palestinians enticed to

leave Israel by various means to reduce the demographic pressure on

Israel and end the “two State Solution” permanently? Will the 1948

Palestinians refugees currently in Lebanon’s camps be relocated to

that South for what would become a substitute state?

Will neighboring events engulf the whole region and the inferno reigns

for decades again or will some states such as Jordan be spared and

remain cohesive and with reasonable stability under the rule and guidance

of its King Abdullah?

As this “New World Order” unfolds in front of our eyes the scene is

one of a large chess game where the soldiers are different masses from

the surrounding countries engaged in a survival territorial conflict while

kings and queens are buttressed behind superior armaments. Everyone’s

vulnerability resides with the choke points of naval commerce, be it

the Hormuz Channel or the two outlets of the Red Sea, the Suez Canal

and Bab Al Mandab.

Controlling an outcome with so many uncertainties is a real challenge

but “Time” has proven unable to bring solutions to reality. The “Status Quo”

is being continuously stirred and the Military Brass everywhere is weighing

the outcomes and how to minimize their damage.

Some reality is in order at this moment: As much as everyone clamors for

concern about Climate Change and its impact on humans and wildlife and

the future of Earth, the dangers surrounding humanity from conflicts and

wars are incredibly risky and no one can predict how much our Climate

can deteriorate and possibly irreversibly after a few nuclear warheads are launched.

We seem to be in uncharted waters, with the survival instinct taking over

all other considerations. The experience of the last century has been

one of world wars and practically mass extinctions at times, and areas of

no-man’s lands due to nuclear radiation and deep mines. The world needs

a clear compass that unites enough people worldwide to make a difference

in controlling the future and away from the scorched earth approach that

could bring the end-of-times long before its time



[1] Putin on unannounced visit to Damascus

Jan 7, 2020 @ 17:27

Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived in Damascus and held talks with Syrian ruler

Bashar Assad. This is only his second visit to the Syrian capital since embarking on Russian

intervention in the Syrian conflict four years ago. DEBKAfile: Putin’s trip is certainly

connected with the fallout in the region following the US killing of Iran’s top general

Qassem Soleimani and its possible impact of the Shiite militias serving in Syria, as

well as the final stage in the bloody battle for Idlib, the last province remaining out of regime hands.

Source https://www.debka.com/mivzak/putin-on-unannounced-visit-to-damascus/

[2] It is a biblical term mentioned in Revelation to refer to the place of the final struggle

between good and evil at the end of the world

Last Updated on Thursday, 13 February 2020 17:07
 

Promotion 1963

MLFcham Promotion 1963

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Promotion 1962

MLFcham Promotion 1962