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Could there be “A New World Order” and would it work this time? PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Imad Abdullah   
Wednesday, 01 May 2019 08:28

 

Prepared by Imad F Abdullah, April 30, 2019

Beyond Sykes-Pico after WW1 and the International Treaties following WW2 which set the course of the last century,

the New World Order before our eyes now has been to divide, to Parcel-out, and to instill hegemony on such parcels

rather than total subjugation. Watching recent events one can easily come to this conclusion.

Let’s start with Libya: Every day now the situation gets more dire and Libya can easily be split to two countries,

each having its own port (Tripoli or Benghazi). With the current offensive. Libyanbanks are accumulating huge debt

making the country totally vulnerable to lenders in addition to warring sides

Yemen is so bloodied that a peaceful reunification seems years away. Two separate countries seem to be the

intended outcome, and unfortunately it has taken a disastrous toll on its people

Lebanon could be on the verge of a divide across its land starting around Sidon and running East to the Syrian Border.

The area south of the divide up to Israel’s northern border can expect a vicious war intended to root out Hezbollah fighters

without heavily impacting Beirut or the North. Hezbollah is no match for Israeli American English French power and Iran

may be helpless to assist with all the air and land routes controlled by the US military

The current embargo and sanctions imposed on Syria will cause substantial deterioration in military capabilities

that reduces the effect of its support for Lebanese factions siding with it. Syria’s Eastern Provinces where the oil is

plentiful are occupied by outside powers, and splitting the country at least in the near term may be the end result.

The situation in the NW area of Idlib could result in another permanent division absent the will to have it reunified

with Syria since nobody knows what to do with the hardened foreign fighters there.

 

 

Iraq is practically divided into spheres of power and with a constitution that prevents the formation of a very large military power.

A homeland for the Kurds that gets carved out of Iraq, Syria and Turkey is constantly debated and may be awaiting the right

strategic timing Turkey is jockeying and straddling whenever and wherever it can to prevent the loss of its Eastern third to

a Kurdish Nation.

Sudan is already finished, the two countries now working to see where interests meet to solve regional water and

population migration issues.

Venezuela is in the eye of the storm; a split is looming on the horizon and the country is in a severe economic

and financial crisis. It will take years to normalize whether the government is changed or not

The United Kingdom may not remain united with BREXIT looming. Since the military power and Deep State are in England,

the split will not impact England’s perennial intent at maintaining it power internationally

Spain faced its divide with Catalonia and the situation remains quite fluid.Tunisia was let go, being a small player with

limited resources. Algeria remains a target with their large oil deposits.

Egypt almost got divided with the Arab Spring and remains for now in a precarious state relying on Saudi and UAE financial support.

It’s one hundred million population without reasonable prosperity is a powder keg simmering all the time.

It is interesting to note that this approach follows past divisions of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union, and in a much earlier

age North Korea from South Korea.

Along the whole spectrum, there is much oil in most of these areas and controlling how much is produced or preventing its production

allows world prices to remain stable and under control, a necessary need for industrial nations. Control of oil gives negotiating

power when dealing with competing powers and is a means to achieve economic objectives.

Rare Metals are also found in many of these troubled regions. They are quite scarce now and world powers are vying for control

of these resources wherever they are with China making inroads worldwide.

This New Order started long ago but much was accomplished recently and practically during the last twenty years.

The Deep States are the constant element guiding decisions and all leaders operate within this web

What about other super-powers and the super-dormant ones?

Though quite large, Brazil has much to do to reach military parity let alone some superiority. It needs somewhat of an economic

miracle to achieve more cohesion and provide a brighter future for its people.

Russia, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Iran and Japan present formidable challenges and especially for the current

US administration although Japan is within its sphere of influence.

North Korea operates under the umbrellas of Russia and China and as such can be left for another time.

Considering that India and Pakistan neutralize each other on the world scene, Iran could be deemed vulnerable and targeted.

Iran is more of a monolithic entity similar to Japan rather than a country with too much diversity.

There are different and diverse populations but their size fades compared to the large block of nationalistic Iranian Shia

sect which has been in control since 1978.

Whoever is elected president in 2020 will be tasked to address one of these challenges, maybe more depending

on the outcome of the simmering situation in Lebanon. The likelihood of war is reduced as we get close to the US presidential

elections although this is by no means a given certainty especially if a lightning strike limited to South Lebanon takes effect.

Given this possibility, the magnitude of its outcome cannot be underestimated especially if the roles of Syria and Iran

are marginalized and assuming the strike neutralizes the local Shia militias and their supporters. Consider the following

scenarios and possibilities:

What happens if South Lebanon becomes the future home of Syrian refugees currently in Lebanon and Jordan unwilling

to return to Syria since many have lost their homes, some oppose the regime, and those 18 or over would be drafted

into the Syrian Military Service? Will this influx by mainly “Sunnis” neutralize the future threat from the “Shias” and stave off

the long-term threat to Israel from the North and will this reshuffling create a permanent change toward a Sunni State?

Will other Lebanese religious factions embrace the change or is there another Civil War in the making?

Could it also become the home of a new wave of Palestinians enticed to leave Israel by various means to reduce the

demographic pressure on Israel and end the “two State Solution” permanently? Will the 1948 Palestinians refugees

currently in Lebanon’s camps be relocated to that South for what would become a substitute state?

Will neighboring events engulf the whole region and the inferno reigns for decades again or will some states such as Jordan

be spared and remain cohesive and with reasonable stability under the rule and guidance of its King Abdullah?

As this “New World Order” unfolds in front of our eyes the scene is one of a large chess game where the soldiers are different

masses from the surrounding countries engaged in a survival territorial conflict while kings and queens are buttressed

behind superior armaments. Everyone’s vulnerability resides with the choke points of naval commerce, be it the Hormuz Channel

or the two outlets of the Red Sea, the Suez Canal and Bab Al Mandab.

Controlling an outcome with so many uncertainties is a real challenge but “Time” has proven unable to bring solutions to reality.

The “Status Quo” is being continuously stirred and the Military Brass everywhere is weighing the outcomes and how to minimize

their damage.

Some reality is in order at this moment: As much as everyone clamors for concern about Climate Change and its impact on

humans and wildlife and the future of Earth, the dangers surrounding humanity from conflicts and wars are incredibly risky and

no one can predict how much our Climate can deteriorate and possibly irreversibly after a few nuclear warheads are launched.

 

We seem to be in uncharted waters, with the survival instinct taking over all other considerations. The experience of the last

century has been one of world wars and practically mass extinctions at times, and areas of no-man’s lands due to nuclear

radiation and deep mines. The world needs a clear compass that unites enough people worldwide to make a difference in

controlling the future and away from the scorched earth approach that could bring the end-of-times long before its time

 

Last Updated on Saturday, 04 May 2019 14:27
 

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