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Written by dedefensa.org   
Thursday, 03 February 2011 15:14

03/02/2011 http://www.dedefensa.org/

 

Un très intéressant et très long article du Wall Street Journal expose les prémisses de la révolte égyptienne article du 2 février 2011). Il s’agit du constat que personne, y compris les manifestants eux-mêmes et le régime Moubarak bien entendu, n’a vu venir précisément cette révolte.

Certes, nous ne parlons pas des prévisions habituelles, qui sont régulièrement égrenées depuis des décennies, sur ces régimes dictatoriaux arabes sur le point de s’écrouler, prévisions qui ont redoublé avec la crise tunisienne, agitant des perspectives d’effondrement de l’Algérie, de la Jordanie, du Yemen, etc., – et de l’Egypte. Il s’agit de supputations qui ne prévoient rien de précis et sont répétées sempiternellement (comme l’on vous dit continuellement au premier nuage qui surgit, “vous allez voir, il va y avoir une tempête” ; on finit par avoir raison puisqu’un jour éclate une tempête dans le cours de la normalité météorologique mais l’on n’a rien prévu en vérité). Nous parlons d’une prévision précise, au jour près, alors que tout ce mettait en place pour la révolte, pour ce jour précisément, sans que personne n’ai cru un instant à cette révolte, – puis, la révolte éclata, aussitôt incontrôlable…

Quelques extraits de l’article, pour introduire un commentaire qui prolonge notre F&C du 1er février 2011.

«A close look at how Egypt's seemingly stable surface cracked in so short a time shows how Egypt's rulers and their Western allies were caught almost completely off guard as the revolution unfolded, despite deep concerns about where Egypt's authoritarian government was leading the country. From the moment demonstrators began pouring into the street, those leaders have been scrambling to keep up, often responding in ways that have accelerated the crisis.

»Just last Monday, few were paying close attention to Egypt. All eyes were on Tunisia, where to much of the world's surprise, President Zine Al Abdine Ben Ali had been chased from office by a month of rising popular protest. This was something the Arab world had never seen before. But the impact spread steadily. […]

»In Cairo, a beleaguered collection of opposition groups plotted another in a series of demonstrations, this time to coincide with Police Day, a national holiday to thank Egypt's police forces. To activists, it was the perfect irony: Almost a year earlier, a young man from Alexandria with no history of political activism, Khaled Saied, had been beaten to death by police. Activists had managed to bring national attention to the case, and they intended to use Police Day to build on that.

»Opposition activists rallied around a Facebook page called We Are All Khaled Saied. To call for a protest, Mr. Saied's death became the focal point for people who hadn't been involved in the rights movement before, says Ahmed Gharbia, an Egyptian activist associated with the page. “He was an everyman, and it was very difficult for people who wanted to paint him as an outlaw to do that.” In the past week, supporters of the page swelled from 75,000 members to over 440,000… […]

»“More Egyptians were more angry than they've probably ever been, and not just activists, but ordinary people. And then came Tunisia, and suddenly people saw that maybe they could do something about that anger,” said Ziad Al-Alimi, an organizer for Nobel Prize Laureate Mohamed ElBaradei. Mr. ElBaradei would return to Egypt to play a key role later. But he, too, failed to detect the early tremors of something new and remained in Vienna.

»Despite fresh inspiration from Tunisia, even the organizers of the demonstrations expected them to come off like so many others—with protesters, far outnumbered by police, quickly driven off, beaten up and arrested. “We went out to protest that day and expected to be arrested in the first 10 minutes, just like usual,” said Mr. al-Alimi. Instead, last week, tens of thousands of Egyptians began taking to the streets, flooding into the central Tahrir Square after pitched battles with thousands of riot police. It became the largest popular protest in Egypt since the so-called Bread Riots against rising prices in 1977.

»Mr. Mubarak's regime was stunned. “No one expected those numbers that showed up to Tahrir square,” said Ali Shamseddin, a senior official with the National Democratic Party in Cairo.

»In faraway Washington, the demonstrations were only starting to register. Last Tuesday's State of the Union address, delivered the day the protests started, had only a short section on foreign policy. President Barack Obama planned to nod to the democratic movement that swept away the ruler of Tunisia, a place “where the will of the people proved more powerful than the writ of a dictator,” the speech read.

»Another line was added, according to a White House official. “And tonight, let us be clear: The United States of America stands with the people of Tunisia, and supports the democratic aspirations of all people.” That last clause was again a nod to Egypt, the official said, although an oblique one.

»In not mentioning Egypt by name, Mr. Obama appeared to be avoiding the subject, said Robert Kagan, a foreign policy analyst at the Brookings Institution. Earlier that day, Mrs. Clinton said Mr. Mubarak's government was stable and “looking for ways to respond to legitimate needs and interests of Egyptian people.”»

Last Updated on Thursday, 14 July 2011 09:43
 

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